When is the Canadian monthly jobs report and how could it affect USD/CAD?


Canadian jobs report overview

Statistics Canada will publish its labour market figures for the month of January later during the early North-American session at 13:30 GMT. Consensus estimates point to an uptick in the unemployment rate to 5.7% from 5.6% previous and the number of employed people to rise by 8.0K as compared to 9.3K rise seen in the previous month.

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) offered a brief preview of today's key economic event: “CAD January's labour force survey will set the tone, with TD looking for job growth to recover to an above-consensus 15k. This should leave the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.6% while we look for a modest improvement in wage growth to 1.7% y/y.”

Commenting on the accompanying Average Hourly Earnings data, Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst writes: “While official expectations are not available for this data point, markets will want to see a recovery towards at least 2%. However, if salary growth remains depressed, the Canadian Dollar could struggle even if the nation posts another month of significant job gains.”

How could it affect USD/CAD?

Ahead of the key event risk, the pair was seen holding steady above the 1.3300 handle and consolidating this week’s strong gains to two-week tops. Any disappointment from today’s jobs report might add to the recent selling around the Canadian Dollar and lift the pair further towards Jan. swing high resistance near the 1.3375 region. 

On the flip side, the market reaction to a slightly better than expected reading might turn out to be rather muted and should be negated by the prevalent weaker tone around crude oil prices. Hence, any meaningful slide back below the 1.3300 handle seems more likely to be limited and find decent support near the 1.3270 horizontal zone.

Key Notes

   •  Canadian jobs preview: Jobs may fall, but CAD may worry about wages

   •  USD/CAD hits fresh 2-week tops, focus shifts to Canadian employment details

   •  USD/CAD Technical Analysis: 1.3370 seems next on buyers’ radar

About Canadian jobs report

The employment report released by Statistics Canada is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. A rise in the employment change/fall in the unemployment rate has positive implications for consumer spending, which stimulates economic growth and is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CAD, while the opposite could negatively impact the domestic currency.

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.1180 following the Fed’s decision

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.1180 following the Fed’s decision

EUR/USD now picks up extra pace and revisits the 1.1180 region after the Federal Reserve decided to cut its interest rates by 50 bps at its event on Wednesday.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD hits fresh tops near 1.3300 on weaker Dollar

GBP/USD hits fresh tops near 1.3300 on weaker Dollar

The Greenback is now accelerating its decline following the Fed’s decision to reduce its interest rates, sending GBP/USD to fresh tops in the 1.3290 zone.

GBP/USD News
Gold clinches a record high near $2,600 ahead of Powell

Gold clinches a record high near $2,600 ahead of Powell

Prices of Gold gather extra steam and hit an all-time top near the $2,600 mark per ounce troy as investors continue to assess the 50 bps rate cut by the Federal Reseve and warm up for the usual press conference by Chief Jerome Powell.

Gold News
Federal Reserve set for first interest-rate reduction in four years amid growing bets of jumbo cut

Federal Reserve set for first interest-rate reduction in four years amid growing bets of jumbo cut

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower the policy rate after the September meeting. The revised Summary of Economic Projections and Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks could provide important clues about the rate outlook.

Read more
UK CPI set to grow at stable 2.2% in August ahead of BoE meeting

UK CPI set to grow at stable 2.2% in August ahead of BoE meeting

The United Kingdom Office for National Statistics will release August Consumer Price Index figures on Wednesday. Inflation, as measured by the CPI, is one of the main factors on which the Bank of England bases its monetary policy decision, meaning the data is considered a major mover of the Pound Sterling.

Read more
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures