Canadian jobs report overview
Statistics Canada will publish its labour market figures for the month of January later during the early North-American session at 13:30 GMT. Consensus estimates point to an uptick in the unemployment rate to 5.7% from 5.6% previous and the number of employed people to rise by 8.0K as compared to 9.3K rise seen in the previous month.
Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) offered a brief preview of today's key economic event: “CAD January's labour force survey will set the tone, with TD looking for job growth to recover to an above-consensus 15k. This should leave the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.6% while we look for a modest improvement in wage growth to 1.7% y/y.”
Commenting on the accompanying Average Hourly Earnings data, Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst writes: “While official expectations are not available for this data point, markets will want to see a recovery towards at least 2%. However, if salary growth remains depressed, the Canadian Dollar could struggle even if the nation posts another month of significant job gains.”
How could it affect USD/CAD?
Ahead of the key event risk, the pair was seen holding steady above the 1.3300 handle and consolidating this week’s strong gains to two-week tops. Any disappointment from today’s jobs report might add to the recent selling around the Canadian Dollar and lift the pair further towards Jan. swing high resistance near the 1.3375 region.
On the flip side, the market reaction to a slightly better than expected reading might turn out to be rather muted and should be negated by the prevalent weaker tone around crude oil prices. Hence, any meaningful slide back below the 1.3300 handle seems more likely to be limited and find decent support near the 1.3270 horizontal zone.
Key Notes
• Canadian jobs preview: Jobs may fall, but CAD may worry about wages
• USD/CAD hits fresh 2-week tops, focus shifts to Canadian employment details
• USD/CAD Technical Analysis: 1.3370 seems next on buyers’ radar
About Canadian jobs report
The employment report released by Statistics Canada is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. A rise in the employment change/fall in the unemployment rate has positive implications for consumer spending, which stimulates economic growth and is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CAD, while the opposite could negatively impact the domestic currency.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD consolidates weekly gains above 1.1150
EUR/USD moves up and down in a narrow channel slightly above 1.1150 on Friday. In the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases, comments from central bank officials and the risk mood could drive the pair's action heading into the weekend.
GBP/USD stabilizes near 1.3300, looks to post strong weekly gains
GBP/USD trades modestly higher on the day near 1.3300, supported by the upbeat UK Retail Sales data for August. The pair remains on track to end the week, which featured Fed and BoE policy decisions, with strong gains.
Gold extends rally to new record-high above $2,610
Gold (XAU/USD) preserves its bullish momentum and trades at a new all-time high above $2,610 on Friday. Heightened expectations that global central banks will follow the Fed in easing policy and slashing rates lift XAU/USD.
Week ahead – SNB to cut again, RBA to stand pat, PCE inflation also on tap
SNB is expected to ease for third time; might cut by 50bps. RBA to hold rates but could turn less hawkish as CPI falls. After inaugural Fed cut, attention turns to PCE inflation.
Bank of Japan set to keep rates on hold after July’s hike shocked markets
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its short-term interest rate target between 0.15% and 0.25% on Friday, following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review. The decision is set to be announced during the early Asian session.
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.