When is Japanese Q1 preliminary GDP data and how could it affect USD/JPY?


Japan’s Finance Ministry is up for releasing preliminary reading of first quarter (Q1) 2019 gross domestic product (GDP) figures at 23:50 GMT on Sunday (i.e. Monday morning in Asia).

Market consensus suggests 0.0% figure of the growth signal versus +0.5% previous readout (revised) on a quarterly basis. However, the yearly format indicates a rise of +0.3% into the headline economic data compared to -0.3% prior. Furthermore, GDP annualized may drop to -0.2% from +1.9% earlier.

How could Japan’s preliminary GDP affect USD/JPY?

With the majority of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials in favor of the central bank’s easy monetary policy, chances are less that a weak GDP reading could change the sentiment at BOJ. However, its negative impact on the Japanese Yen (JPY) can’t be denied.

Given the elections for the upper house in July and decision on whether to raise consumption tax or not lay ahead, today’s GDP data gains additional importance to drive the USD/JPY pair moves. However, on-going risk sentiment shouldn’t be undermined while forecasting the quote’s near-term momentum.

In a case where GDP disappoints, the USD/JPY pair may aim for 100-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 110.50 and then to 50-day SMA figure of 111.10 during further increase.

On the contrary, an upbeat print could add strength into the latest safe-haven buying of the JPY and may drag USD/JPY towards revisiting 109.70 and 109.00 rest-points.

Key Notes

USD/JPY analysis: corrective advance could extend up to 110.50

USD/JPY technical analysis: Buyers challenging the 110.00 figure

About the Japanese Q1 preliminary GDP

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Cabinet Office shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced in Japan within a given period of time. GDP is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which the Japanese economy is growing or decreasing. A high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the JPY, while a low reading is negative.

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