When is China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI and how could it affect the AUD/USD?

Anil Panchal FXStreet

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI overview

Having witnessed official readings of China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) during the weekend, markets brace for Caixin Manufacturing PMI, up for publishing at 01:45 GMT on Monday, in order to determine near-term trade direction of AUD/USD.

While downbeat data at home and escalating trade tension between the US and China keep worrying the Aussie traders, buyers will be extra-cautious of any dovetailing data coming out of China. Macro consensus favors the private activity gauge to remain mostly unchanged with 49.8 mark versus 49.9 flashed during the month of July.

Westpac also follows the market consensus while saying, “the unofficial China manufacturing PMI (Markit/Caixin) for Aug is due at 11:45 am Syd/9:45 am local. A similar reading to Jul’s 49.9 headline index is expected.”

How could it affect the AUD/USD?

With the AUD/USD pair trading near 0.6700 round-figure, tested twice during August, a disappointing print of PMI can further push the quote towards previous month’s low around 0.6677. However, a surprise reading of above 50.00 will shift traders’ attention to bullish signal by the 12-bar moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) and can trigger the pair’s pullback towards 21-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.6761. It should also be noted that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains its dovish bias and further weakening of the global Treasury yields exert additional downside pressure on the Aussie pair.

Key Notes

AUD/USD bars back in control in early Asia open, eye test of 0.67 the figure

AUD/USD Analysis: struggling to retain the 0.6700 level

About the China Caixin PMI

The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI™ is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 private manufacturing sector companies.

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

EUR/USD holds losses near 1.1850 as US, China holidays keep trade muted

EUR/USD opens the week on a softer note, trading near 1.1860 during the Asian session on Monday. Activity is likely to remain muted, with United States markets closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday, while Mainland China is also shut for the week-long Lunar New Year break.

GBP/USD flat lines as traders await key UK macro data and FOMC minutes

The GBP/USD pair kicks off a new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow range, just below mid-1.3600s, during the Asian session. Moreover, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for aggressive traders as the market focus now shifts to this week's important releases from the UK and the US.

Gold buyers hesitate amid holiday-thinned trading

Gold trades volatile, but within range, as US, China holidays-led thin trading exaggerates moves. The US Dollar extends range play into the US GDP week, with markets pricing at least two Fed rate cuts this year. Technically, Gold tests key support at $5,000; daily RSI still remains bullish.

Top Crypto Losers: Dogecoin, Zcash, Bonk – Meme and Privacy coins under pressure

Meme coins such as Dogecoin and Bonk, alongside the privacy coin Zcash (ZEC), are leading the broader market losses over the last 24 hours. DOGE, ZEC, and BONK ended their three consecutive days of recovery with a sudden decline on Sunday, as crucial resistance levels capped the gains. Technically, the altcoins show downside risk, starting the week under pressure.

Global inflation watch: Signs of cooling services inflation

Realized inflation landed close to expectations in January, as negative base effects weighed on the annual rates. Remaining sticky inflation is largely explained by services, while tariff-driven goods inflation remains limited even in the US.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.