When is China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI and how could it affect the AUD/USD?

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI overview

Having witnessed official readings of China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) during the weekend, markets brace for Caixin Manufacturing PMI, up for publishing at 01:45 GMT on Monday, in order to determine near-term trade direction of AUD/USD.

While downbeat data at home and escalating trade tension between the US and China keep worrying the Aussie traders, buyers will be extra-cautious of any dovetailing data coming out of China. Macro consensus favors the private activity gauge to remain mostly unchanged with 49.8 mark versus 49.9 flashed during the month of July.

Westpac also follows the market consensus while saying, “the unofficial China manufacturing PMI (Markit/Caixin) for Aug is due at 11:45 am Syd/9:45 am local. A similar reading to Jul’s 49.9 headline index is expected.”

How could it affect the AUD/USD?

With the AUD/USD pair trading near 0.6700 round-figure, tested twice during August, a disappointing print of PMI can further push the quote towards previous month’s low around 0.6677. However, a surprise reading of above 50.00 will shift traders’ attention to bullish signal by the 12-bar moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) and can trigger the pair’s pullback towards 21-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.6761. It should also be noted that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains its dovish bias and further weakening of the global Treasury yields exert additional downside pressure on the Aussie pair.

Key Notes

AUD/USD bars back in control in early Asia open, eye test of 0.67 the figure

AUD/USD Analysis: struggling to retain the 0.6700 level

About the China Caixin PMI

The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI™ is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 private manufacturing sector companies.