US Monthly Retail Sales Overview
Tuesday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures for May, scheduled later during the early North American session at 12:30 GMT. The report is expected to show that the headline sales fell 0.8% during the reported month, marking a further deceleration from a massive 10.7% rise recorded in March.
Excluding autos, core retail sales are also projected to rise by a modest 0.2% in May. The closely watched Retail Sales Control Group are anticipated to decline further by 0.6% following a 1.5% fall in the previous month.
How Could it Affect EUR/USD?
Ahead of the key release, the US dollar stood tall near the top end of its monthly trading range and acted as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. A surprisingly positive headline print could provide an additional lift to the greenback and turn the pair vulnerable to prolong its recent corrective slide from multi-month tops, around the 1.2265 region touched in May.
Conversely, a softer reading is more likely to be overshadowed by expectations of a slightly less dovish Fed, which should put a temporary floor under the greenback. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the major remains down. That said, the market reaction is likely to be limited as investors might refrain from placing aggressive bets heading into the key event risk – the much-awaited FOMC monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own analyst offered a brief technical outlook for the EUR/USD pair: “Euro/dollar is now facing critical resistance at 1.2150, which is where the 50 and 200 simple moving averages on the four-hour chart converge. Moreover, that level provided support to the pair last week. Break or bounce? Momentum remains to the downside and the short-term trend is bearish as well – lower lows and lower highs.”
Yohay also provided some important technical levels to trade the major: “Support is at 1.2115, which is the daily low. It is followed by 1.2090, Friday's trough. Further down, 1.2050 and 1.2015 await the pair. Resistance above 1.2150 is at 1.2165, followed by 1.2220 and 1.2250.”
Key Notes
• US Retail Sales: A dip in auto sales to drag on the headline – Scotiabank
• US May Retail Sales Preview: Analyzing major pairs' reaction to previous releases
• EUR/USD Forecast: Euro bounces toward technical confluence, US retail sales may knock it down
About US Retail Sales
The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
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