UK Retail Sales Overview
The UK Retail Sales, scheduled to be published at 06:00 GMT on Friday, are expected to nosedive 4% MoM in March, following -0.3% seen in February. Total retail sales are seen depleting 4.7% over the year in the reported month, down from 0.0% booked previously.
Meanwhile, core retail sales, stripping the basket off motor fuel sales, are also likely to portray the coronavirus (COVID-19) impact with -3.5% MoM and -4.7% YoY numbers.
Deviation impact on GBP/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 80 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, can fuel movements of up to 150 pips.
How could it affect GBP/USD?
Considering the BRC Like-for-Like Retail Sales data, -3.5 versus -0.4 prior, the figures may come out as devastating as expected and could keep the downside pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Though, the Cable’s refrain to respond to downbeat PMIs and Consumer Confidence from GfK seems to be signaling the warnings. Hence, the actual outcome near to the forecasts might not be able to exert much downside pressure onto the pair, unless being too extreme, whereas surprise figures could extend the recent recoveries.
At the press time, the Cable registers mild gains of 0.08% on a day to 1.2355 while flashing the three-day winning streak. Even so, a 21-day SMA level of 1.2410 acts as an immediate upside barrier, which in turn highlights the monthly low surrounding 1.2250 on the bears’ radar during the pair’s pullback.
Key notes
GBP/USD poking its head up above virus/Brexit-infested waters
GBP/USD Forecast: Brexit talks not doing well
About the UK Retail Sales
The retail sales released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.
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