USD/SEK soars to multi-month high after soft inflation figures from Sweden

USD/SEK increased more than 0.60% towards 11.200, its highest since November 2022.
Sweden’s August CPI came in lower than expected.
The USD’s strengths amid strong economic figure contributes to the upward momentum.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

The USD/SEK tallied a fresh multi-month high around 11.200 as the SEK lost interest following soft inflation figures from Sweden from August. On the other hand, the Greenback continues to trade strong, with its DXY advancing to highs since March 9 after positive mid-tier economic figures were released.

On the Swedish front, headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in August was registered at 7.5% YoY, slightly below the expected 7.7%. In addition, the Consumer Price Index with a Fixed Interest Rate (CPIF) ex-energy came in at 7.2% YoY vs. 7.4% and lower than the previous 8.0% reading. Despite soft inflation figures, the SEK’s losses may be cushioned by the Riskbank’s hawkish stance as it hinted in its last meeting that it will hike one more time in 2023, as the weakness of its currency contributes to inflationary pressures. In that sense, a hike to 4% is priced in for next week’s meeting.

On the other hand, the US economy doesn’t cool down and continues to report strong data. The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged by 0.7% MoM, leading to a 1.6% YoY increase, surpassing predictions. Retail Sales also demonstrated strength, posting a 0.6% MoM growth, well above the expected 0.2% rise. Meanwhile, during the second week of September, Jobless Claims increased to 220,000, slightly exceeding the previous week's 217,000 but staying below the anticipated 225,000. Focus now shifts to next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) decision, where investors will look for clues to continue modelling their expectations in the policy statement and Chair Powell’s presser. As for now, the CME FedWatch tool indicates that the odds of one last 25 basis point (bps) hike have slightly declined to nearly 35%.

USD/SEK Levels to watch

Observing the daily chart, USD/SEK suggests a bullish sentiment for the near future. Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the positive zone above its midline, showing an upward slope. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reflects encouraging green bars, reinforcing the growing bullish momentum and both indicators are about to reach overbought conditions, which could fuel a downward correction in the near term. Furthermore, the pair is above the 20,100,200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), highlighting the continued dominance of bulls on the broader scale.

Support levels: 11.096, 11.0650, 11.055.

Resistance levels: 11.230, 11.2400, 11.290.

USD/SEK Daily chart

USD/SEK

Overview
Today last price	11.1972
Today Daily Change	0.0651
Today Daily Change %	0.58
Today daily open	11.1321

Trends
Daily SMA20	11.0228
Daily SMA50	10.7376
Daily SMA100	10.685
Daily SMA200	10.5522

Levels
Previous Daily High	11.1694
Previous Daily Low	11.0588
Previous Weekly High	11.1683
Previous Weekly Low	10.9291
Previous Monthly High	11.0993
Previous Monthly Low	10.4126
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	11.1271
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	11.101
Daily Pivot Point S1	11.0708
Daily Pivot Point S2	11.0095
Daily Pivot Point S3	10.9603
Daily Pivot Point R1	11.1814
Daily Pivot Point R2	11.2306
Daily Pivot Point R3	11.2919

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

AUD/USD falters just above 0.7000; looks at the jobs data

AUD/USD has briefly managed to surpass the 0.7000 threshold on Wednesday, although the move rapidly dissipated following higher-than-estimated US inflation data in September, which has eventually lent extra legs to the Greenback. Moving forward, the release of the labour market report will take centre stage in Australia on Thursday.

USD/JPY consolidates near 158.50; looks to US CPI for fresh impetus

USD/JPY stays range-bound near 158.50 in the Asian session on Wednesday, with looming intervention risks supporting the Japanese Yen and capping upside amid a softer US Dollar. However, geopolitical uncertainties act as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD and the pair. Traders also seem hesitant ahead of the release of the latest US inflation figures.

Gold remains offered below $4,100

Gold adds to the weekly bearish tone and slips back below the $4,100 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday. Indeed, the precious metal continues to suffer the stronger US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields as bets for extra tightening by the Fed remain on the rise following US inflation figures.

Bitcoin and Gold Forecast: BTC and XAU drop after hot US CPI

Bitcoin (BTC) is edging lower toward $82,000 on Wednesday as headwinds from sticky inflation in the United States (US) force investors to reevaluate their positioning. Gold (XAU/USD) remains under sustained selling pressure, trading below $4,100 and falling for a third consecutive day. As the correction intensifies, a retest of key $4,000 support appears likely unless bearish momentum abates.

Stock futures just went red on the CPI. Here's what the bond market is pricing that equities haven't caught up to

Since late June, the bond market has been pricing in a Federal Reserve (Fed) that keeps raising rates into 2027, and most US stocks have already been marked down for it. The S&P 500 hasn't, because a handful of AI-linked giants make up much of the index and their prices haven't followed the rest.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?