USD/SEK reversed its multi-month-high rally ahead of eventful week

  • USD/SEK soared to 11.249, its highest since early November 2022.
  • Riskbank is expected to hike 25 bps to 4%.
  • The Fed will likely deliver a hawkish pause.

The USD/SEK saw volatility on Monday, rising to a high since November 4, 2022, then settling at 11.122, securing daily losses. The USD trading somewhat soft, and the Krona holding its ground ahead of one last hike by the Riksbank on Thursday contributed to the pair movements.

In line with that, markets are confident that the Riksbank will deliver its last hike of 25 bps of its tightening cycle to 4%. The Swedish bank will also release updated macro forecasts, and Governor Thedeen will be on the wires on Friday. For the rest of the year, investors are discounting that there won’t be any more hikes and that the policy rate will peak at 4.05% in Q2 2024.

On the Fed’s side, markets practically priced in a pause on Wednesday but a hawkish one. The bank will likely try to convince markets that the policy will still depend on incoming data and will leave the door open for further hikes. In the meantime, according to the CME FedWatch tool, investors are placing 35% odds on one last hike of 25 bps in November or December, but those odds will rise and fall according to the outcome of the incoming data.

In addition, the Fed will release an updated macro forecast and revised dot plot, which will likely set the pace of the USD price dynamics and the expectations for the upcoming meetings.

USD/SEK Levels to watch 

 The daily chart highlights a neutral technical outlook for USD/SEK as signs of bullish exhaustion become evident, but still, the pair remains in multi-month highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a decrease in upward momentum with a negative slope above its midline, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) lays out neutral green bars. Furthermore, the pair is above the 20,100,200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicating buyers command the broader perspective.

Support levels: 11.0960, 11.0650, 11.0550.
Resistance levels: 11.175, 11.205, 11.249.

USD/SEK Daily Chart


Today last price 11.151
Today Daily Change -0.0493
Today Daily Change % -0.44
Today daily open 11.2003
Daily SMA20 11.0461
Daily SMA50 10.7498
Daily SMA100 10.7033
Daily SMA200 10.5608
Previous Daily High 11.206
Previous Daily Low 11.1254
Previous Weekly High 11.2085
Previous Weekly Low 11.0496
Previous Monthly High 11.0993
Previous Monthly Low 10.4126
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 11.1752
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 11.1562
Daily Pivot Point S1 11.1485
Daily Pivot Point S2 11.0967
Daily Pivot Point S3 11.0679
Daily Pivot Point R1 11.2291
Daily Pivot Point R2 11.2578
Daily Pivot Point R3 11.3096



Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content

Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD stays below 1.0850 as USD recovers ahead of Fed minutes

EUR/USD stays below 1.0850 as USD recovers ahead of Fed minutes

Following Tuesday's choppy action, EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades below 1.0850 on Wednesday. The recovery seen in US Treasury bond yields and the souring market mood support the USD ahead of FOMC Minutes and weigh on the pair.


GBP/USD retreats below 1.2750 following UK CPI-inspired rally

GBP/USD retreats below 1.2750 following UK CPI-inspired rally

GBP/USD retreated below 1.2750 after rallying to a two-month-high above 1.2760 after the data from the UK showed that inflation was higher than expected in April. The US Dollar stays resilient against its rivals on Wednesday as markets turn cautious ahead of the FOMC Minutes. 


Gold drops below $2,400, focus shifts to FOMC Minutes

Gold drops below $2,400, focus shifts to FOMC Minutes

Gold price turned south and extended its slide after breaking below the key $2,400 level. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds steady above 4.4% and the US Dollar benefits from the negative shift seen in risk sentiment ahead of FOMC Minutes, not allowing XAU/USD to rebound.

Gold News

Shiba Inu price buy signal hints 25% upswing on the horizon for SHIB holders Premium

Shiba Inu price buy signal hints 25% upswing on the horizon for SHIB holders

Shiba Inu (SHIB) price continues its struggle above a key hurdle. This development comes as SHIB, an ERC-20 meme coin, reacts to the Ethereum spot ETF approval news.

Read more

Fed Minutes Preview: Markets to focus on comments regarding the inflation outlook

Fed Minutes Preview: Markets to focus on comments regarding the inflation outlook

The Fed left unchanged its monetary policy settings following the April 30-May 1 policy meeting as expected. In its policy statement, the US central bank said that there has recently been a lack of further progress toward the 2% inflation target.

Read more