USD/RUB looks to consolidate after gyrating in a large boundary, Russia-Ukraine peace talks eyed

USD/RUB attracted significant offers near 155.00 and is likely to consolidate further.
Prohibition of Russian oil imports by the US may dampen the fiscal revenues of Moscow.
The headline of ceasefire is less likely to return the glory for Russia.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The USD/RUB pair tapped a high of 155.00 on Monday but eased off quickly towards 123.00 on rising uncertainty over the future of the Russian economy. A visible wide swing in the major is likely to bring a lackluster performance, which may be followed by a resumption in the rally.

The ban on Russia on the SWIFT international banking system, prohibition of Russian oil by the US, and cease of Russian assets by the West have left dried leaves on the financial structure of the former's economy. The oil-rich country without a buyer may fail to address its fiscal revenues going forward. In response to the ban of Russian oil at the US ports, Moscow leader Vladimir Putin has promised a retaliation, which may bring quick sanctions from its allies.

The oil prices have climbed above $125.00 on large deviation in the demand-supply mechanism led by the isolation of leading oil producers in the world.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has confirmed that he is no longer pressing for NATO membership by Ukraine. The confirmation by the former is certainly an indication of a ceasefire, which may pause the destruction and death in Ukraine. However, the Kremlin may resort to operating in isolation post the ceasefire confirmation between the nations.

Adding to that, the Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy is ready to settle on recognition of pro-Russian territories as ‘independent’.

The US dollar index (DXY) is holding itself above 99.00 on rising odds of a 50 basis point (bps) interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in March’s monetary policy meeting. However, investors will also focus on the pre-mega event of US inflation numbers, which are due on Thursday.

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

GBP/USD clings to multi-day peaks below 1.3500

GBP/USD trades with marked gains on Friday, now giving away some gains following an earlier surpass of the key 1.3500 yardstick. Indeed, Cable gathers fresh steam amid the strong offered stance in the Greenback, all after US NFP badly missed expectations in July.

EUR/USD: Post-NFP bounce falters around 1.1580

EUR/USD reverses Thursday’s decline and trades with solid gains in the 1.1560 region, or two-month peaks, on Friday. The pair’s firm performance comes in a context of a sharp correction in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess disheartening US NFP readings.

Gold trades below $4,350; remains close to seven-week high

Gold is seen consolidating Friday's post-NFP rally and trading just below $4,350 at the start of a new week, close to its highest level since June 17. Meanwhile, weak US jobs data tempered Fed rate hike bets, which keeps the US Dollar on the defensive and acts as a tailwind for the non-yielding bullion. Meanwhile, the focus now shifts to this week's US inflation figures as traders await developments surrounding the Middle East crisis.

Week ahead: US CPI data, BoJ summary and RBA decision take the stage

US inflation data to guide Fed rate hike expectations. A hawkish BoJ summary of opinions could support the Yen. RBA could still sound hawkish amid sticky inflation. UK GDP and activity figures to shape sterling sentiment.

CFTC Report: FX repositioning dominates as commodities diverge

The week in one sentence: a historic Yen short unwind led to a broader recovery in FX positioning, while Gold strengthened with price confirmation, and renewed selling in WTI and Coffee reinforced commodity weakness. The Japanese Yen delivered the report's dominant move. Net positioning improved by nearly 118K contracts, the largest weekly increase since at least 2011.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.