USD/MXN Price Analysis: Remains below 23.6% Fibo. hurdle near mid-16.00s, or weekly high

USD/MXN trades with a positive bias for the third straight day, albeit lacks follow-through.
The technical setup supports prospects for the emergence of fresh selling at higher levels.
Reduced Fed rate cut bets continue to underpin the USD and should limit the downside.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/MXN pair attracts some buyers for the third successive day on Thursday, albeit lacks bullish conviction and remains below the weekly top, around the 16.50-16.55 area touched the previous day.

The aforementioned area represents the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-April downfall and should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. A sustained strength beyond might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the USD/MXN pair to the next relevant hurdle near the 16.65-16.70 supply zone, or the 38.2% Fibo. level. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for a move towards challenging the 16.85 confluence hurdle, comprising the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibo. level.

Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart – though have been recovering – are still holding in the negative territory and suggest that any meaningful upside might still be seen as a selling opportunity. This, in turn, warrants some caution for bullish traders and before confirming that the USD/MXN pair has bottomed out in the near term. In the meantime, the 16.30-16.25 area, or the lowest level since August 2015, is likely to protect the immediate downside, below which spot prices could slide to test the 16.00 round-figure mark.

The hotter US consumer inflation figures released on Wednesday forced investors to push back expectations for the first interest rate cut to September from June. Moreover, the markets are now pricing in the possibility of less than two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024, which assists the US Dollar (USD) to stand tall near the YTD peak. This should assist the USD/MXN pair to defend the aforementioned handle, which if broken decisively should pave the way for the extension of an over a two-month-old downtrend witnessed from the YTD peak touched in January.

USD/MXN daily chart

USD/MXN

Overview
Today last price	16.4575
Today Daily Change	0.0161
Today Daily Change %	0.10
Today daily open	16.4414

Trends
Daily SMA20	16.609
Daily SMA50	16.8549
Daily SMA100	16.9958
Daily SMA200	17.1756

Levels
Previous Daily High	16.5213
Previous Daily Low	16.3021
Previous Weekly High	16.6737
Previous Weekly Low	16.4403
Previous Monthly High	17.0655
Previous Monthly Low	16.5116
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	16.4375
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	16.3858
Daily Pivot Point S1	16.3219
Daily Pivot Point S2	16.2024
Daily Pivot Point S3	16.1027
Daily Pivot Point R1	16.5411
Daily Pivot Point R2	16.6408
Daily Pivot Point R3	16.7602

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

GBP/USD holds recovery gains near 1.3400 despite soft UK CPI data

GBP/USD clings to recovery gains near 1.3400 in European trading on Wednesday. The UK annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation cooled to 2.6% in June against the market forecast of 2.7%, failing to deter the British Pound's rebound from weekly troughs. However, the pair's further upside could be limited by ongoing Mideast tensions and sustained US Dollar demand as a haven.

EUR/USD gains ground above 1.1400 on hawkish ECB tone

The EUR/USD pair holds positive ground near 1.1410 during the early European trading hours, bolstered by a hawkish tone from the European Central Bank. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid escalating military tensions and recent retaliatory airstrikes between the US and Iran.

Gold: Strong recovery might face roadblock as oil price extends gains

Gold price extends its winning streak for the third trading day on Wednesday, trading 1.5% higher to near $4,140 during the Asian session. The precious metal recovered strongly in the past few trading days from its three-week low of $3,959.80 as traders scaled back Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike expectations for the monetary policy meeting next week.

Bitcoin holds firm as ONDO and GRAM lead rally

The broader cryptocurrency market is witnessing an easing of bearish momentum, with Bitcoin holding above $66,000 on Wednesday. Altcoins including Ondo and Gram, formerly known as Toncoin, are leading gains over the last 24 hours, driven by new features. Bitcoin holds above $66,000 on Wednesday, following a 2% surge the previous day.

Hyperliquid hits a make-or-break zone amid easing demand

Hyperliquid (HYPE) hovers around $60 capped below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $62.70. The everything exchange token is losing its retail demand as funding rates fluctuate near zero amid elevated long liquidations.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.