USD/JPY recovery gains momentum, now eyeing 100-DMA hurdle

The USD/JPY pair's recovery move from monthly lows seems to have picked up some pace in the past hour or so, lifting it back closer to the 113.00 handle. 

The post-FOMC greenback selling pressure seems to have abated, with the pair snapping four consecutive days of losing streak and attempting a recovery back above the 100-day SMA important support break-point, turned immediate strong resistance. 

A modest recovery in the US treasury bond yields helped the key US Dollar Index to bounce of multi-week lows and supportive of the pair's recovery from mid-112.00s, the lowest level since Feb. 28.

The recovery momentum, however, lacked conviction amid mildly weaker trading sentiment around European equity markets, which tends to benefit the Japanese Yen's safe-haven appeal. 

Later during the NY session, speech by the Chicago Fed President Charles Evans would grab the spotlight and might provide some impetus ahead of the US President Donald Trump's speech during early Asian session on Tuesday.

G20 statement diluted the commitment to avoid protectionist trade measures - BBH

Technical outlook

Omkar Godbole, Analyst and Editor at FXStreet notes, "Friday’s retreat from 113.49 to 112.56 adds credence to bearish break below 50-DMA on Thursday and open doors for a sell-off to 111.73 (confluence of channel support and lower Bollinger band). Under 111.73, the spot would run into an immediate support at 111.60 (Feb low). Only a daily close below 111.60 would signal the continuation of the retreat from The December high of 118.66 levels. The daily RSI is below 50.00 sloping downwards, but still sufficiently away from the oversold territory. That signal potential for a drop to 111.73-111.60 levels. On the higher side, only a daily close back above the 50-DMA would signal bearish invalidation."

1 Week
Avg Forecast 113.11
100.0%70.0%40.0%04050607080901000
  • 40% Bullish
  • 30% Bearish
  • 30% Sideways
Bias Bullish
1 Month
Avg Forecast 114.31
100.0%88.0%59.0%05560657075808590951000
  • 59% Bullish
  • 29% Bearish
  • 12% Sideways
Bias Bullish
1 Quarter
Avg Forecast 114.81
100.0%78.0%56.0%05560657075808590951000
  • 56% Bullish
  • 22% Bearish
  • 22% Sideways
Bias Bullish