- USD/INR prints three-day downtrend, attacks 11-week low tested the previous day.
- Rise in virus-led fatalities drop to the lowest since March in India.
- US Dollar Index refreshes two-week low, tracks Treasury yields to the south.
- Bears can keep the reins amid cautious optimism ahead of US NFP, India GDP important for today.
USD/INR takes offers around 73.22, down 0.27% intraday during a three-day south-run ahead of Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the Indian rupee (INR) pair remains pressured towards the lowest levels since mid-June, flashed on Monday, by the press time.
A broad US dollar weakness post-Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech could be linked to the USD/INR pair’s downtrend. However, recovery in the coronavirus conditions in India seems to underpin the latest fall.
As per the latest covid figures, India’s virus-led death toll dropped to 350, the lowest since March 30 while the daily infections grew by 30,941 to 32.77 million, per Reuters data.
Not only in India but the easy virus numbers from Australia, New Zealand and the UK also weigh on the US dollar’s safe-haven demand and favor USD/INR bears. Furthermore, recently weaker US data hints at the prolonged easy money policies from the Fed and exerts additional downside pressure on the greenback.
Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury yields drop for the third consecutive day to refresh weekly low around 1.273%, down 1.1 basis points (bps) whereas the US stock futures print mild gains by the press time.
Moving on, India's GDP figures for the June quarter will be the key for USD/INR traders. Also important are the market chatters over Fed tapering and the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) market intervention.
Ahead of the data, Reuters survey said, “India's GDP data is set to be released at 1200 GMT. The country's economy likely rebounded in the April-June quarter from a deep slump last year helped by improved manufacturing and despite a devastating second wave of COVID-19 cases.”
Technical analysis
Failures to cross 200-DMA, around 73.60, during the previous day’s corrective pullback keep USD/INR sellers hopeful to revisit the 73.00 threshold.
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