- USD/INR prints two-day downtrend around intraday low, sluggish of late.
- India trade and PMI numbers, Moody’s optimism over Asia-Pacific keep pair sellers hopeful.
- DXY struggles to rebound even as Treasury yields pause south-run.
- US NFP, RBI moves become the key events, risk catalysts are important too.
USD/INR bounces off intraday low, down 0.05% around 74.30, amid early Tuesday. Even so, the Indian rupee (INR) pair drops for the second consecutive day by the press time.
Although the US dollar weakness could gain major attention while seeking the factors behind the USD/INR weakness, improving fundamentals from India also favor the pair sellers.
Among them, the latest trade numbers from India, as well as upbeat activity numbers for July, become the key. As per the latest details, Indian exports jumped to the record high, together with the four-month peak of imports, whereas Markit PMI also rose past June’s downbeat figures.
Elsewhere, the US-based rating giant Moody’s sounds optimistic over the Asia-Pacific region’s economic rebound while saying, “Asia-Pacific’s economic activity likely will rebound strongly in 2021 and 2022 as compared with recent performance.” Additionally, chatters that two foreign banks have recently intervened in the FX markets to back the INR strength also favored the USD/INR sellers of late.
On the other hand, the US dollar struggles to justify its safe-haven appeal even as the covid woes escalate. The reason could be linked to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) historical allocation of $650 billion to its Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), not to forget US Senator’s hopes of getting President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan passed this week.
Amid all these plays, US 10-year Treasury yields rebound posting the lowest daily closing since February whereas the US stock futures and Indian shares remain mildly bid by the press time.
Moving on, USD/INR is likely to remain range-bound ahead of the key Friday when the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will move the quote, expectedly to the north.
Technical analysis
The USD/INR pair’s sustained trading below 21-DMA, around 74.55, keeps directing the quote to the late June’s swing low near 74.05. However, any further downside will be challenged by the 50-DMA level of 73.95.
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