• USD/INR snaps two-day south-run, bounces off monthly low.
  • Covid woes put a safe-haven bid under the US dollar.
  • Indian infections rise by 44,230, virus-led deaths jumped by 555.
  • US PCE Inflation, second-tier Indian data and risk catalysts should be watched for fresh impulse.

USD/INR picks up bids around 74.30, 0.08% intraday, ahead of Friday’s European session. Although the latest bounce off the monthly low favors the Indian rupee (INR) pair to print daily gains for the first time in three weeks, it remains on the two-week south-run by the press time.

While tracing the pair’s immediate rebound, the US dollar recovered from a one-month low, amid the coronavirus woes, which could be cited as the key catalyst. Also helping the counter-trend traders could be the market’s cautious sentiment ahead of the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, namely US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index for June.

Although India is luckily far from Japan and the US, the Asian nation’s latest covid numbers do give a wake-up call to the policymakers. As per the latest Health Ministry data, conveyed by Reuters, India reports 44,230 new covid-19 cases in the last 24 hours, taking a total to 31.57 million. Further, the death toll increased by 555 to 423,217 at the latest. Elsewhere, Japan posts record daily covid count and the US infections are also the highest since February.

On the other hand, US Q2 GDP backed the Fed’s resistance to discuss tapering but today’s inflation data may renew reflation fears as market consensus favors a 3.7% YoY figures versus 3.4% previous readouts. Furthermore, the US Senate talks over President Joe Biden’s infrastructures spending plan are also positive and suggests a further inflow of money, which in turn could bring additional inflation and urgency for the Fed to act.

The market plays back US Dollar Index (DXY) to snaps a four-day downtrend, up 0.05% around 91.96 by the press time. However, the US Treasury yields and stock futures, not to forget Asian stocks, are offered at the time of the press.

Given the risk-off mood favoring the USD/INR bulls, any further strengthening of the US data may extend the recovery moves. However, Indian infrastructure relating data and headlines affecting market sentiment, mainly relating to the covid and US stimulus, will also be important to watch for near-term direction.

Read: US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index June Preview: Bad will not be bad enough

Technical analysis

Unless breaking the late June’s swing lows, surrounding 74.00, USD/INR may again try to cross the 21-DMA level surrounding 74.55.

Additional important levels

Today last price 74.3275
Today Daily Change 0.0777
Today Daily Change % 0.10%
Today daily open 74.2498
Daily SMA20 74.5451
Daily SMA50 73.8802
Daily SMA100 73.7855
Daily SMA200 73.6182
Previous Daily High 74.4531
Previous Daily Low 74.2104
Previous Weekly High 75.0155
Previous Weekly Low 74.3213
Previous Monthly High 74.5135
Previous Monthly Low 72.4854
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 74.3031
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 74.3604
Daily Pivot Point S1 74.1557
Daily Pivot Point S2 74.0616
Daily Pivot Point S3 73.913
Daily Pivot Point R1 74.3985
Daily Pivot Point R2 74.5472
Daily Pivot Point R3 74.6413



Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended content

Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD extends slide toward mid-1.0200s after US data

EUR/USD extends slide toward mid-1.0200s after US data

EUR/USD continues to decline toward 1.0250 during the American trading hours on Friday. After the data published by the UOM showed that the long-run inflation outlook rose to 3% in August from 2.9% in July, the dollar gathered strength against its rivals, weighing on the pair.


GBP/USD pushes lower 1.2100 on broad dollar strength

GBP/USD pushes lower 1.2100 on broad dollar strength

GBP/USD is trading deep in negative territory near 1.2100 during the American session on Friday. With the UoM's Consumer Sentiment Survey pointing to a modest increase in the long-run inflation outlook, the US Dollar Index extended its rally, reflecting a broad dollar strength.


Gold clings to modest gains above $1,790

Gold clings to modest gains above $1,790

Gold stays relatively resilient on Friday and trades modestly higher on the day above $1,790. Although the greenback continues to outperform its rivals on the latest US data, falling US Treasury bond yields help XAU/USD hold in positive territory.

Gold News

Shiba Inu ready to go ballistic: Shiba Eternity released in Vietnam

Shiba Inu ready to go ballistic: Shiba Eternity released in Vietnam

Shytoshi Kusama, the project leader of Shiba Inu announced the launch of Shiba Eternity for Vietnamese players. The game is available for testing and the team has asked users for their review. 

Read more

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

Tap into our 20 years Forex trading experience and get ahead of the markets. Maximize our actionable content, be part of our community, and chat with our experts. Join FXStreet Premium today!