- USD/INR snaps three-day downtrend, picks up bids of late.
- Mixed chatters on Fed’s tapering, covid weigh on the INR amid light calendar.
- US PPI, Jobless Claims and second-tier Indian statistics awaited for fresh impulse.
USD/INR extends bounce off weekly low to 74.26, up 0.17% intraday, heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the Indian rupee (INR) pair prints daily gain for the first time in four days during a quiet day filled with mixed catalysts and a light calendar.
The latest positives could be linked to the comments from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly who said, per the Financial Times, “Tapering of asset purchases could start as soon as this year.”
It’s worth noting that Kansas City Fed President Esther George teased early tapering the previous day while also citing a long way for the monetary policy adjustments. On the same line were Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin.
Also on the negative side could be India’s covid numbers suggesting an increase of 41,195 daily rises in infections and a jump of 490 in the death toll.
Furthermore, cautious sentiment ahead of Indian Inflation and Industrial Output data also weighs on the INR. Ahead of the release, a Reuters poll said, “India will release retail inflation for July aftermarket. Inflation is likely to have eased to a three-month low of 5.78% against 6.26% in June.”
On Tuesday, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data backed the Fed’s “transitory” outlook on inflation and pulled the US Dollar Index (DXY) back from the four-month top. However, a lack of major data/events portrayed a mixed performance of the USD afterward.
Amid these plays, stock futures remain directionless and so do the Asian shares whereas India’s BSE Sensex prints mild gains by the press time. Further, the US 10-year Treasury yields regain upside momentum towards 1.35%.
Looking forward, US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Weekly Jobless Claims will be eyed for fresh impulse, not to forget risk catalysts and Indian data.
Technical analysis
USD/INR marks another bounce off 50-DMA, near 74.15, suggesting corrective pullback towards monthly resistance line near 74.50.
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