- USD/INR struggles to snap three-day downtrend, picks up bids of late.
- RBI begins two-day monetary policy meeting, Indian covid numbers follow Asia-Pacific counterparts.
- Virus woes, Fed tapering concerns entertain buyers ahead of the key risk events on Friday.
USD/INR rises to 74.23, up 0.05% intraday, amid the early Thursday’s trading. The Indian rupee (INR) pair dropped to the lowest since June 22 during its three-day downtrend before the recent corrective pullback.
The US dollar’s safe-haven demand and the Fed’s tapering chatters, not to forget the pre-data/events anxiety, are the key catalysts to challenge the USD/INR bears.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains firmer, backed by upbeat Treasury yields, around 92.30 by the press time after San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly followed Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to renew the tapering chatters. Also underpinning the greenback’s safe-haven demand could be the covid woes amid multi-day high infections from India, Australia, China and the US.
As per the latest covid numbers from the Indian Health Ministry, daily infections jumped the most since early May, with 42,982 daily cases, whereas the death toll also rose by 533.
It should be noted that the mixed US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data, contrast to hawkish comments from Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also favor the USD/INR buyers.
Even so, Friday’s US jobs report and the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy meeting will be the key to follow for fresh impulse. While the early signal for US employment figures has already teased the pair bears, RBI is likely to portray a dovish tilt and may challenge the USD/INR weakness if matched. However, it all depends upon the actual outcome and risk catalysts that shouldn’t be ignored.
Technical analysis
Although a three-week-old descending trend line restricts the USD/INR pair’s immediate downside around 74.10, 10-DMA level of 74.33 and a downward slopping resistance line from July 20, forming part of falling wedge bullish chart pattern near 74.42, challenge the bulls.
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