- USD/INR picks up bids to reverse the previous day’s pullback from two-week high.
- Chatters surrounding RBI intervention near 81.80-90 join oil prices retreat to challenge bulls.
- China COVID-19 woes, cautious mood ahead of the key data, FOMC Minutes keep buyers hopeful.
- Support for Fed’s 75 bps rate hike, upbeat US data could portray further upside.
USD/INR stays defensive around 81.75, despite the recent pick-up, as traders await Wednesday’s key data/events amid mixed concerns. Even so, hawkish hopes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the coronavirus fears emanating from China keeps the Indian Rupee (INR) bears hopeful.
That said, the USD/INR pair took a U-turn from the highest levels in a fortnight the previous day amid a broad US dollar pullback. On the same line could be the study by asset manager Invesco, shared by Reuters, suggesting that India has emerged as the second most coveted investment market after the United States for sovereign wealth funds and public pensions funds in 2022.
However, the recovery in the Crude Oil prices and the market’s cautious mood seemed to have favored the INR bears afterward.
Recently, the WTI crude oil retreated to $81.00 amid demand fears due to the COVID-19 woes, as well as chatters surrounding the OPEC+-inspired increase in energy supplies.
It should be noted that China’s daily coronavirus counts head towards the record top marked in April while the virus counts from Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing also increased. On the same line were headlines from the South China Morning Post (SCMP) quoting Nomura’s Chief Economist Lu Ting as saying, “China’s economic growth next year appears to entirely hinge on a potential exit from its zero-covid policy, and even if such a shift occurs, more pain is inevitable before the real recovery.”
Additionally, market chatters that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervenes around 81.80-90 also seemed to challenge the USD/INR bulls of late.
That said, the USD/INR pair is likely to remain on the bull’s radar but the upside momentum appears limited. Even so, today’s flash readings of November’s activity numbers for the US will precede the US Durable Goods Order for October and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes to offer clear signals.
Technical analysis
A daily closing beyond the 21-DMA, around 81.80 by the press time, becomes necessary for the USD/INR bulls.
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