USD/INR plummets as Indian Rupee recovers after RBI's intervention
- The Indian Rupee gains sharply in the opening trade against the US Dollar after the RBI’s intervention.
- FIIs selling and higher oil prices could weigh on the Indian Rupee.
- Investors await the US NFP data for fresh cues on the current state of the labor market.
The Indian Rupee (INR) surges in the opening trade against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The USD/INR pair plunges to near 91.80 as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has intervened in the foreign exchange market to offer support to the Indian Rupee against one-way excessive moves, according to Reuters.
The RBI was highly anticipated to intervene as the USD/INR pair hit a fresh all-time high of 92.67 on Wednesday amid a significant outflow of foreign funds from the Indian stock market and higher oil prices due to the war in the Middle East.
In the first two trading days of March, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 12,048.29 crore, almost double what they pared in the entire February. FIIs continue to distance themselves from the Indian equity market despite improving trading relations between the United States (US) and India.
Meanwhile, rising global oil prices due to the war between the US, Israel, and Iran have badly battered the currencies of nations that rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs.
The war in the Middle East seems unlikely to stop anytime soon, as US President Donald Trump has stated that it will continue for four to five weeks. Meanwhile, Iran has also denied reports signaling Tehran’s openness to discuss truce terms with Washington. “No message has been sent from Iran to the US, nor will any response be given to US messages,” an official from Tehran said, Tasnim reported. Additionally, Tehran has also threatened a prolonged war.
The New York Times (NYT) reported on Tuesday that operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence reached out indirectly to the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) with an offer to discuss terms for ending the conflict. The news led to a sharp correction in the US Dollar Index (DXY) after it posted a fresh three-month high at 99.68.
Meanwhile, the USD Index has regained ground after retracing to near 98.67 and is up 0.25% to near 99.00 at the press time.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | INR | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.29% | 0.27% | -0.06% | 0.02% | 0.47% | -0.56% | 0.21% | |
| EUR | -0.29% | -0.02% | -0.35% | -0.27% | 0.18% | -0.83% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | -0.27% | 0.02% | -0.36% | -0.25% | 0.20% | -0.82% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.06% | 0.35% | 0.36% | 0.07% | 0.54% | -0.50% | 0.27% | |
| CAD | -0.02% | 0.27% | 0.25% | -0.07% | 0.46% | -0.55% | 0.18% | |
| AUD | -0.47% | -0.18% | -0.20% | -0.54% | -0.46% | -1.01% | -0.28% | |
| INR | 0.56% | 0.83% | 0.82% | 0.50% | 0.55% | 1.01% | 0.76% | |
| CHF | -0.21% | 0.10% | 0.06% | -0.27% | -0.18% | 0.28% | -0.76% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
In the US, improving US employment conditions and signs of accelerating factory-level inflation are expected to allow Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to hold interest rates at their current levels for a longer period. The ADP Employment Report showed on Wednesday that the US private sector created 63K fresh jobs in February, significantly higher than the 50K estimate and the prior reading of 11K.
Earlier this week, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI report showed that its sub-component Prices Paid, a key measure of factory-level inflation, soared to 70.5 in February against 59.5 estimates and the previous reading of 59.0.
For more cues on the current state of the US labor market, investors will focus on the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for February, which will be released on Friday.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR remains firm as 20-day EMA advances higher
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USD/INR corrects sharply to near 91.82 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. Still, the near-term tone remains bullish as spot holds above the rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is near 91.36.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls to near 62 after turning slightly overbought, indicating positive momentum has cooled but still favors dips being absorbed rather than an immediate trend reversal.
Initial support emerges at the 20-day EMA around 91.36, with a break exposing secondary support at 91.00 and then the prior reaction low near 90.60. On the topside, resistance is located at the March 4 high of 92.67.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
ADP Employment Change
The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Wed Mar 04, 2026 13:15
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 63K
Consensus: 50K
Previous: 22K
Source: ADP Research Institute
Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
