USD Index treads water around 103.60 ahead of key US data

The index trades without direction around 103.60.
US yields appear side-lined around recent levels.
Investors’ focus remains on the US NFP, ISM gauge.

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback vs. a bundle of its main rival currencies, trades within a narrow range around 103.60 at the end of the week.

USD Index now looks at NFP

The index continues to digest Thursday’s strong rebound after three consecutive daily pullbacks, including a drop to fresh lows in levels just below the 103.00 level (August 30).

The dollar’s cautious price action comes in line with the equally prudent developments from US yields across different timeframes, all ahead of the crucial release of the US jobs report for the month of August.

Other than the Nonfarm Payrolls, markets are expected to closely follow the publication of the ISM Manufacturing also for the month of August as well as Construction Spending and the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI.

What to look for around USD

The index now wobbles around the 103.50/60 band amidst rising cautiousness prior to key data releases in the US calendar on Friday.

In the meantime, support for the dollar keeps coming from the good health of the US economy, which seems to have reignited the narrative around the tighter-for-longer stance from the Federal Reserve.

Running on the opposite side of the road, the idea that the dollar could face headwinds in response to the data-dependent stance from the Fed against the current backdrop of persistent disinflation and cooling of the labour market appears to have regained some traction as of late.

Key events in the US this week: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Persistent debate over a soft or hard landing for the US economy. Incipient speculation of rate cuts in early 2024. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China.

USD Index relevant levels

Now, the index is losing 0.12% at 103.50 and the breach of 102.93 (weekly low August 30) would expose 102.38 (55-day SMA) and then 101.74 (monthly low August 4). On the upside, there is an initial hurdle at 104.44 (monthly high August 25) ahead of 104.69 (monthly high May 31) and finally 105.88 (2023 high March 8).

Author

Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

AUD/USD edges higher as hot CPI inflation and hawkish RBA lift rate hike bets

The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.7035 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar edges higher against the US Dollar as hotter Australian CPI inflation data has bolstered expectations of Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes.

USD/JPY meets support near 157.00

USD/JPY retreats for the third consecutive day on Friday, revisiting the 157.00 region before attempting some recovery as investors continue to assess the latest BoJ meeting, where the central bank left rates unchanged, as widely anticipated.

Gold sinks to fresh yearly lows despite risk-off mood as Fed rate hike bets weigh

Gold slips to fresh year-to-date lows on Friday. The metal struggles despite a risk-off mood across markets, as expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes continue to dominate price action, leaving Gold on track to end the month in negative territory.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP bulls defend $1.20 as sell-side pressure triggers liquidations

Ripple (XRP) trades around $1.25 on Friday, rising from a short-term support level established at $1.20. This minor upward correction follows a sharp sell-off, triggered amid reports of a hack attack on the Binance exchange that impacted approximately $6.3 billion. The attack drove the broader crypto market on edge, as Binance suspended both deposits and withdrawals to contain the situation.

BoJ recap: A pause for now... but Japan has entered a new inflation phase

The Bank of Japan left its short-term policy rate unchanged at 1.25% but delivered a distinctly hawkish message on the risk of an inflation overshoot. The decision passed by 8-1, with board member Takata dissenting in favour of an increase to 1.5%, while Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed that the Bank would continue adjusting policy as needed.

A hot US economy is supposed to sink Gold. It didn't. Here's why

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure near $4,000, as stronger-than-expected United States (US) economic data reinforce expectations of another Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in December. Economic growth is accelerating, inflation remains elevated, and borrowing costs could rise further.