- USD/IDR prints mild gains amid downbeat Indonesia inflation data, firmer US Dollar.
- Indonesia Inflation softens in July, US Dollar Index pokes three-week high.
- Optimism in Asia fails to defend Rupiah buyers amid mixed catalysts ahead of mid-tier US data.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings eyed for intraday directions, Indonesia Q2 GDP, US NFP are the key.
USD/IDR justifies downbeat Indonesia Inflation during early Thursday as bulls prod the 15,120 level to print mild gains heading into the European session. Apart from the downbeat Indonesia inflation, the firmer US Dollar also favors the Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) bears.
That said, Indonesia's Inflation eases to 3.08% YoY in June from 3.52% prior, compared to 3.1% expected, whereas the Core Inflation also edges lower to 2.43% versus 2.50% market forecasts and 2.58% previous readings.
On the other hand, the Dollar Index (DXY) clings to mild gains at a three-week high of around 102.00 marked earlier in the day.
It’s worth noting that the hawkish comments from the Fed officials and mixed US data join downbeat headlines about China to also propel the USD/IDR prices amid a risk-on mood in the Asia-Pacific zone.
That said, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee defends the US central bank’s hawkish moves while Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index improves to -20.0 for July from -23.2 prior versus -26.3 expected. Further, Chicago PMI rose to 42.8 from 41.5 prior versus 43.0 market forecasts. In doing so, the DXY ignores Friday’s softer prints of US inflation clues and the weekend comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari’s criticism of higher interest rates.
Elsewhere, fresh fears of the US-China tussle, as Beijing restricts drone exports in retaliation to the US tech and trade war tactics by citing the “national security” measures, prod the optimists in the Asian-Pacific zone. Also weighing on the sentiment could be the downbeat China PMI as Caixin Manufacturing PMI for July fails to trace its upbeat NBS counterpart while declining to 49.2 for July from 50.5 prior, versus 50.3 market forecasts, marking the lowest level since January.
Looking ahead, US ISM Manufacturing PMI for July and JOLTS Job Opening for June will direct intraday moves of the Indonesia Rupiah. However, major attention will be given to Friday’s Indonesia Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2) and the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for clear directions.
Technical analysis
A daily closing beyond 15,150 becomes necessary for the USD/IDR bulls to challenge the yearly top of around 15,230. That said, the 15,000 round figure puts a floor under the Indonesia Rupiah prices.
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