USD/CHF edges higher to near 0.8450, awaits US data for fresh impetus

USD/CHF has retraced its recent losses registered on Friday, trading higher near 0.8450 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) receives upward support at the beginning of the year, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) edging above 101.50.

Given the recent decline in US labor data, Core PCE Inflation, and GDP Annualized, market participants are likely to exercise caution before making bids on the US Dollar (USD). These indicators support the notion that the US economy is slowing down in the fourth quarter, possibly heading towards a soft landing. This further reinforces the argument for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in 2024, exerting negative pressure on the USD.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index released by ISM-Chicago on Friday showed that business conditions in the Chicago region reduced to 46.9 in December from the previous 55.8, exceeding the market expectation of a 51.0 decline. ISM Manufacturing PMI figures and Meeting Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are scheduled to be released on Wednesday.

The naval clash in the Red Sea could fuel heightened risk aversion, which could increase the demand for the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF). Houthi militants attacked a Maersk container ship on Sunday, but the assault was thwarted by US helicopters. Following the incident, Iran sends a warship to the Red Sea. This situation raises the possibility of disruptions in the vital waterways for oil transportation, including the Red Sea and the Straits of Hormuz in the Gulf.

During the past week, the Swiss ZEW Survey – Expectations recorded a decline of 23.7 points in December, compared to the 29.6 decrease in November. On a surprising note, the KOF Swiss Leading Indicator improved to 97.8, surpassing the expected reading of 97.0. Looking ahead, the SVME Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is scheduled for release on Wednesday, adding to the economic indicators to watch.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) appears poised to adopt a proactive stance, as indicated in its recent Quarterly Bulletin. The bank has conveyed its readiness to actively intervene in the foreign exchange market to provide support for the Swiss Franc (CHF).