USD/CAD Price Analysis: Hovers below 1.3600 on downbeat oil prices, Fed decision eyed

USD/CAD grapples to extend its gains on the back of subdued Crude oil prices.
A firm breakthrough above 1.3600 could lead the pair to reach a 21-day EMA at 1.3620.
14-day RSI lies below the 50 mark; the 1.3550 level could act as key support.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

USD/CAD struggles to extend its gains for the second successive day while US Dollar (USD) stays in the positive territory. The downbeat Crude oil prices reinforce the downward pressure on the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The USD/CAD pair trades higher around 1.3590 during the European session on Wednesday.

The USD/CAD pair finds the psychological level at 1.3600 as a key barrier. A firm break above the latter could inspire the bulls of the USD/CAD pair to explore the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3620 followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3840 before the major resistance at 1.3650 level.

The technical indicator Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for the USD/CAD pair signals a potential bullish trend reversal. MACD line lies below the centerline and crosses above the signal line. The crossover above the signal line suggests that the shorter-term moving average is gaining strength relative to the longer-term moving average, indicating a shift towards positive momentum in the pair.

However, the analysis suggests a dovish sentiment for the USD/CAD pair, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 50. This implies a weakness in the pair, and it could lose ground. The mentioned support levels, including the major level around 1.3550 and the psychological support at 1.3500, are crucial markers to watch.

If the USD/CAD pair breaks below the latter, it might encounter further bearish pressure, potentially navigating toward the region around the previous week's low at 1.3480.

USD/CAD: Daily Chart

USD/CAD: More technical levels

Overview
Today last price	1.3592
Today Daily Change	0.0000
Today Daily Change %	0.00
Today daily open	1.3592

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.3626
Daily SMA50	1.3688
Daily SMA100	1.3591
Daily SMA200	1.3516

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.3619
Previous Daily Low	1.3545
Previous Weekly High	1.362
Previous Weekly Low	1.348
Previous Monthly High	1.3899
Previous Monthly Low	1.3541
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.3591
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.3573
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.3552
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.3512
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.3479
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.3626
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.3659
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.3699

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold holds above $4,000/three-month low as Fed hike bets and firm USD cap upside

Gold struggles to capitalize on its modest recovery from levels below the $4,000 psychological mark, or a three-month low set earlier this Friday, and retains a bearish tone through the first half of the European session. Federal Reserve officials recently signaled there is no urgency to raise interest rates. Traders, however, are still pricing in around an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again at its December policy meeting.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

US S&P Global PMI expected to show moderating business activity in October

The United States S&P Global preliminary Purchasing Managers Indices for October will be released on Friday, providing fresh insights into the health of the world's largest economy ahead of next week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. The report includes the Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and Composite PMI, which measure business activity across the private sector.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.