USD/CAD Price Analysis: Bullish above, bearish below, potential trend-line breakouts in focus

USD/CAD has been in a chop over the past week as the US dollar struggles to make a strong case one way or the other.

Technically, the price of the pair is at a juncture where analysis done from a longer-term time frame pulls out two scenarios, depending what goes down on the daily time frame over the next day or so if it doesn't just continue to consolidate that is above and below the structure.

The following monthly chart has the pair testing a key trend line support:

If the pair breaks the trendline, there are two potential scenarios which crop up on the weekly time frames as follows:

Weekly scenario 1

As we can see, the price is testing below the bullish trendline and is en route for a test of the counter trendline.

A so-called 'fake out' trade could lead to a restest and break of the bullish trendline, a test of the upper structure, a retest of the bullish trendline and then a subsequent bullish breakout for long traders to take advantage of. 

Weekly scenario 2

In this scenario, bears will be looking to see that the bullish trendline acts as a resistant on a retest from which a discount and confirmed structure would equate to a higher probability trade set-up for a short towards a targeted downside structure target. 

Bullish above, bearish below

From a daily perspective, the price is below a structure that should it continue to fail on attempts higher and above, then the bearish scenario above could be in play.

However, if the bulls manage to get above the structure, then the bullish scenario will be supported by two strong and tested dynamic trendline supports, leaning the probabilities of a successful long in the trader's favour.