USD/CAD bears stay hopeful at 1.2700 as oil bulls eye Russia’s nuclear alarm

USD/CAD printed the biggest daily loss of 2022 on Friday as risk-off mood escalated.
Russia President Putin puts nuclear deterrence forces on high alert.
Ukraine-Russia talks can trigger risk-on mood but nothing positive so far as West escalates pressure on Moscow with harsh sanctions.
Canada Q4 Current Account, second-tier US data may decorate calendar but risk catalysts are crucial to follow.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

USD/CAD portrayed the heaviest weekly loss in six by the end of Friday, poking 1.2700 at the latest. In doing so, the Loonie pair also marked the heaviest daily fall of 2022 as oil bulls remain hopeful over the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

With major currency pairs marking the week-start gaps to justify the risk-off mood in the market, due to weekend headlines from Russia and Ukraine, USD/CAD traders remain on the edge as the quote broke monthly support on Friday.

After the initial hesitance, the Western leaders finally agreed to cut some of the Russian banks from the SWIFT international payment system, also marked sanctions on the Russian central bank, to portray their dislike of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. In a reaction, Russian President Vladimir Putin puts nuclear deterrence forces on high alert and offered another blow to the market sentiment.

However, headlines conveying the Ukraine-Russia peace talks, at the Belarus-Ukrainian border, may offer a sigh of relief and could help the USD/CAD pare recent losses as the Asian markets gain momentum on Monday morning.

It’s worth noting that WTI crude oil prices, Canada’s key export item, printed ‘Gravestone Doji’ bearish candlestick on the weekly chart while closing around $91.80 on Friday.

That said, Canada’s Q4 Current Account will join the US trade numbers for January and Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index for February to decorate the calendar for short-term directions to the USD/CAD traders. However, risk catalysts will be crucial, especially the Russia-Ukraine headlines.

Technical analysis

USD/CAD recently broke a monthly support line, around 1.2710 by the press time, which in turn directs the quote towards the 100-DMA level surrounding 1.2630. However, the 50-DMA level tests the downside momentum near the 1.2700 threshold.

Additional impotant levels

Overview
Today last price	1.27
Today Daily Change	0.0000
Today Daily Change %	0.00%
Today daily open	1.27

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.272
Daily SMA50	1.2701
Daily SMA100	1.2635
Daily SMA200	1.2559

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.2821
Previous Daily Low	1.2696
Previous Weekly High	1.2878
Previous Weekly Low	1.2682
Previous Monthly High	1.2814
Previous Monthly Low	1.2451
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.2744
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.2773
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.2657
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.2615
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.2533
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.2782
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.2864
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.2906

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

USD/JPY eyes August swing low, near 155.20 ahead of US NFP

USD/JPY retests the August monthly swing low during the Asian session on Friday as a more hawkish repricing of BoJ rate-hike bets and a suspected intervention continue to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is seen consolidating the previous day's heavy losses amid soft US bond yields, further weighing on the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200; US NFP awaited

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7200, near its highest level since mid-May, as bulls await the US NFP report for more cues on the Fed's policy path before placing fresh bets. Meanwhile, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level in over a week and acts as a tailwind for the Aussie amid the RBA's hawkish tilt.

Gold tumbles as blockbuster US NFP lift US Dollar, Treasury yields

Gold (XAU/USD) falls sharply on Friday, snapping a two-day recovery after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report surprised strongly to the upside. The metal briefly climbed above $4,500 on Thursday, gaining nearly 2%, but has since erased a large part of that advance.

Crypto’s $638 million buyback boom may not be as bullish as it looks

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols reportedly spent $638 million to buy back their native tokens in August, up 17% from a year earlier. On the surface, the buyback trend suggests the cryptocurrency industry is maturing fast, adopting one of Wall Street’s oldest tools to bolster valuations and distribute revenue. The headline becomes less impressive once the number is opened up.

Why hawkish Bank of Japan expectations aren't enough to sustain the Japanese Yen rally

The Japanese Yen (JPY) experienced a sudden burst higher after falling back below the 160.00 psychological mark against the US Dollar (USD) earlier this week amid a more hawkish repricing of Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike expectations.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.