|

US: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 31.90 in December vs. expected drop to 25.00

  • The NY Fed Manufacturing Index rose unexpectedly to 31.90 in December. 
  • The strong report was ignored due to a simultaneous release of weaker than expected US retail sales numbers. 
  • FX markets are focused on the Fed policy announcement later in the session.   

The headline General Business Conditions Index of the NY Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey surprisingly rose to 31.90 in December, up from 30.90 in November. That was a beat on the market's median forecast for a decline to 25.00. 

Additional Takeaways as per the NY Fed's report:

"Business activity continued to grow strongly in New York State."

"The new orders index and shipments indexes were both little changed at 27.1, pointing to another month of strong growth in both areas."

"The index for number of employees came in at 21.4, indicating a solid increase in employment, and the average workweek index fell to 12.1, suggesting a modest increase in hours worked."

"The prices paid index edged down three points to 80.2, and the prices received index fell six points to 44.6, signaling ongoing substantial increases in both input prices and selling prices, though at a slightly slower pace than in November."

"Firms were generally optimistic about the six-month outlook, though optimism remained below levels seen in September and October. The index for future business conditions held steady at 36.4."

Market Reaction

The strong NY Fed survey result was largely negated, as far as FX markets are concerned anyway, by a weaker than expected November Retail Sales report. The DXY saw a slight dip as a result but remains close to session/recent highs in the 96.50 area as the Fed policy announcement looms. 

Author

Joel Frank

Joel Frank

Independent Analyst

Joel Frank is an economics graduate from the University of Birmingham and has worked as a full-time financial market analyst since 2018, specialising in the coverage of how developments in the global economy impact financial asset

More from Joel Frank
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD stays slightly offered below 1.3600

Following an initial drop to fresh six-day lows, GBP/USD now picks up some updside traction and trades in levels just shy of the 1.3600 barrier on Thursday. The generalised cautious tone among market participants continue to underpin the Greenback ahead of Friday’s data releases and the Fed Warsh’s speech.

EUR/USD challenges 1.1650; US Dollar remains inconclusive

EUR/USD now manages to regain some composure, trimming earlier losses and reclaiming the mid-1.1600s on Thursday. The pair’s pullback comes on the back of marginal gains in the US Dollar, as market participants now shift their attention to Friday’s NFP revision and the speech by Chair Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Gold struggles to reclaim $4,600

Gold adds to Wednesday’s pullback, although it manages to pick up some pace and come closer to the $4,600 mark per troy ounce on Thursday. In the meantime, the yellow metal remains on the back foot despite the widespread caution and the lack of clear direction of the US Dollar.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP bulls regain strength amid steady capital inflows

Cryptocurrency prices are broadly edging higher on Thursday, led by Bitcoin’s uptick near $80,000. Altcoins mirror Bitcoin’s short-term bullish outlook, with Ethereum trading above $2,500 and Ripple hovering above its key $1.40 support.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole dilemma: Say too much, too little, or just enough

Kevin Warsh is preparing to deliver his first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair on Friday, and expectations extend well beyond whether interest rates will be raised or left unchanged in September.