US NFP Preview: Forecasts from 10 major banks, less strong, but not weak

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the November jobs report on Friday, December 2 at 13:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of 10 major banks regarding the upcoming employment data.

Expectations are for a 200K rise in Nonfarm Payrolls following the 261K increase in October while the US Unemployment Rate is seen steady at 3.7%.

Commerzbank

“We forecast job growth of 200K after 261K in October. However, even then the labor market would remain quite strong. As a result, the Fed is still likely to raise key rates by a total of 100 basis points.”

Danske Bank

“We expect US job growth to decline from 261K to a still decent 220K.”

ING

“The jobs numbers should hold around 200K given the number of vacancies continues to exceed the number of unemployed people by a ratio of 1.9:1. Nonetheless, there are more firings going on in the tech sector and the increase in initial claims also points to softer employment growth in the coming months.”

Wells Fargo

“We look for job growth to moderate further in November and the subsequent months. Layoffs, according to initial jobless claims and the JOLTS report, remain low, but discharges are only half the net hiring equation. Demand for additional workers appears to be slipping. Job openings, hiring plans, PMI employment subcomponents and consumers' views of the labor market have all deteriorated since the spring. Beyond the headline, the average hourly earnings data also will be crucial for Federal Reserve policymakers. It will take more than normalizing supply chains to return inflation to 2%, and slower wage growth is another important piece of the puzzle.”

RBC Economics

“US payroll employment likely trended up in November, by 150K and the unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 3.8% from 3.7% in October. Job openings are still high but have been edging lower.”

NBF

“Hiring could have slowed down in the month if previously released soft indicators such as S&P Global’s Composite PMI are any guide. Layoffs, meanwhile, could have stayed low judging by the level of initial jobless claims. With these two trends cancelling each other, payroll growth could come in at 150K. The household survey is expected to show a stronger gain, a development which could translate into a one-tick decline of the unemployment rate to 3.6%.”

SocGen

“US employment data should remain strong in November (+270K), with the unemployment rate down at 3.6%.”

CIBC

“Hiring likely slowed to a still-healthy 180K pace in November. The strength of the consumer could have supported employment in industries including leisure, restaurants, and retail trade, while the easing of supply chain issues could have prevented a drop in manufacturing payrolls. The unemployment rate likely remained at 3.7% in November after rising by two ticks in October, reflecting a drop in employment in the household survey. We’re slightly below the consensus, which could cause bond yields and the USD to edge lower.”

Citibank

“We expect a solid 225K jobs added in November, reflecting a slowing but still-solid pace of job growth. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% MoM, a slightly softer increase than last month but with upside risks. Average hourly earnings have slowed in recent months relative to other, more carefully constructed wage measures such as the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Tracker and the Fed’s preferred Employment Cost Index. After a somewhat surprising increase in October, we expect the unemployment rate to drop to 3.6%.” 

TDS

“The November labor market report will likely indicate that payrolls continued to slow gradually but still advanced firmly in November at 240K. There is more uncertainty with regard to the unemployment rate. We had an extraordinary drop in household employment in October and, based on similar patterns earlier this year, this possibly means a rebound in this series back in line with the establishment survey, which would entail a downside risk to November's unemployment rate. However, we also expect labor force participation to have recovered somewhat in November. Overall, we forecast the unemployment rate to have stayed unchanged at 3.7%, in line with. Finally, wage growth likely slowed to 0.3% MoM after printing 0.4% in October.”