According to analysts from Danske Bank, the most important economic number to be released next week in the US is the PCE inflation on Friday.
US: Key events for next week - Danske Bank
“In the US, the most important numbers due for release next week are the PCE inflation ones for August on Friday (note that PCE numbers are due out on Thursday but these are quarterly for Q2 released together with the third estimate of GDP growth in Q2). We estimate a slight uptick in the monthly increases of both PCE headline and PCE core following the release of the surprisingly high increase in CPI (CPI and PCE numbers tend to follow each other). The monthly increase in the CPI numbers leads us to believe that PCE headline will increase 0.3% m/m (1.5% y/y versus 1.4% in July) and PCE core 0.2% m/m (1.4% y/y versus 1.4% in July). Note that although this relatively strong monthly print in the PCE core does not lead to increases in the yearly rate, this has to do with a very large monthly increase in August last year.
“Next week also brings Conference Board consumer confidence (Tuesday) as well as final University of Michigan consumer confidence (Friday) – both for September. The numbers usually move more or less in tandem and the preliminary Michigan numbers indicate a fall in the Conference Board numbers to 121.5.”
“On Wednesday, core capex orders for August are due to be released. Although core capex has been trending upwards since last summer at approximately 0.5% per month, overall industrial production fell 0.9% m/m in August. Hence, we estimate an unchanged core capex in August. However, uncertainty is particularly large for August due to the hurricanes.”
“Finally, Chicago manufacturing PMI for September is due for release on Friday.”
“We also have several speeches by FOMC members in the coming week following the FOMC meeting ending Thursday this week. Here, it will be interesting to hear more about which FOMC members are hawks and which are more dovish.”
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