US Dollar sees green backed by strong labor market data, mixed PMIs
- The DXY index bottomed at weekly lows and managed to trim Wednesday’s losses
- The Fed's stance seems slightly dovish, unmistakably resisting overreaction to two months of hot inflation.
- S&P PMIs came in mixed, Jobless Claims figures came in stronger than expected.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at 103.80, marking a 0.50% increase, almost trimming all of Wednesday’s losses. The Greenback gained ground after mixed S&P preliminary PMIs from March and strong weekly Jobless Claims.
The overriding consensus is a start to an easing cycle in June and the timing of the next cut will be dictated by incoming data. With recent hot inflation figures, the Fed revised its inflation projections higher. However, Jerome Powell confirmed there will be no overreaction from the bank. This consideration pushed the Fed's stance more dovish, implying a less aggressive approach toward rates. The Dot Plot showed that the median rate prediction by the end of this year remains at 4.6%.
Daily digest market movers: DXY is trending higher near 103.80, finding its footing after a post-FOMC sell-off
- S&P Global's initial Purchasing Managers Survey for March showed a slight decrease in the Services PMI, dropping from 52.3 to 51.7.
- Conversely, there was an increase in the Manufacturing PMI, rising from 52.2 to 52.5. The Composite PMI, which stood at 52.5 in February, showed a slight dip to 52.2.
- Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 15 came in at 210K, lower than the 215K expected.
- After the FOMC's decision, US Treasury bond yields are increasing with the 2-year yield trading at 4.59%, the 5-year at 4.25%, and the 10-year at 4.27%.
DXY technical analysis: DXY displays bullish momentum, trims Wednesday’s losses
The technical outlook for DXY reflects a recovering bullish momentum. This viewpoint is primarily driven by the rising slope and positive territory of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which signals increasing buying pressure. In addition, the augmentation of green bars in the histogram of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signifies that buying momentum is mounting.
In addition, the index recovered above the convergence of the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), further reinforcing a resilient bullish traction. If the DXY manages to stay above the 103.50-70 area, the outlook will be bright for the DXY.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
Author
Patricio Martín
FXStreet
Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.
