US: Busy week ahead with NFP, ISM and PMI – Danske Bank

In the US, data to be released next week includes the jobs report and ISM indices for November. Analysts from Danske Bank expect good news from both.

Key Quotes: 

“In the US, we have a busy week ahead of us. We start the week with the release of the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices for November on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. ISM manufacturing is weak but the regional indices and the Markit PMI manufacturing index point to an increase. We do not have any indicators for ISM non-manufacturing but a couple suggest at least a stabilisation. Remember the level is lower than it was in 2017-18 and we believe an increase is more likely than a decline. We will also keep a close eye on the employment sub-indices for manufacturing and non-manufacturing, which have been quite weak recently.”

“The highlight of the week is the jobs report for November, due out on Friday. Employment in October was quite strong, both when looking at the revisions to the previous months and when taking into account that the strike at General Motors (affecting nearly 50,000 workers) pulled down the headline despite soft indicators suggesting a more severe jobs growth slowdown (as mentioned above). Soft indicators continue to indicate a softening in employment growth but the headline is likely to be strong, as the striking workers have returned to work. We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 200,000 in November, suggesting underlying growth of around 150,000.”