UK: Large Tory majority to deliver smooth Brexit – Standard Chartered

According to Christopher Graham, economist at Standard Chartered, the Conservative party looks set to win a clear majority of seats in the UK general election.

Key Quotes

“Not all constituencies have declared yet, but early results appear to confirm the exit polls released at 10.00pm GMT, which indicated the Conservative party winning around 368 seats, a sizeable majority of 86 seats (the exit polls point to Labour on 191 seats, Liberal Democrats on 13 and the Scottish National Party on 55).”

“The primary aim of Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s administration will be to pass the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) through Parliament as soon as possible, to ensure that the UK leaves the EU by 31 January 2020 and enters the transition period. The expected size of the Conservative majority suggests that passage of this deal should be straightforward and swift.”

“During the transition period, the government’s focus will be on the future EU relationship. Here too, given the large majority that the Conservative party is expected to win, Boris Johnson will have room to manoeuvre; in particular, he will be able to adopt a more pragmatic approach to negotiating a free trade agreement with the EU.”

“He will also have the authority – should he desire – to seek an extension of the transition period out to end-2021 or end-2022 if more time is required for EU trade negotiations. That said, it is still possible that the UK will leave the transition period without a trade deal in place by end-2020.”