According to Jacqui Douglas, chief European macro strategist at TD Securities, with 9 days to go for the UK elections, the betting odds point to steady expectations for a Conservative majority, in line with results from last week's YouGov MRP model.

Key Quotes

“The Conservative-Labour vote spread has narrowed slightly. It's now teetering around 10%, the rough dividing line between a safe or narrow Conservative win, where it could be more difficult to pass contentious legislation.”

“There are two election risks in view:

  • US President Trump visit: Trump is in London for NATO meetings. While he has pledged to stay out of the election, moments later he said Johnson is very capable and will do well and waded into the NHS trade deal debate. Any "helpful" comments from Trump may not actually be very helpful for Johnson.
  • Friday's Johnson-Corbyn debate: Johnson needs to prevent Corbyn from landing any fatal blows during their head-to-head debate.”

“If polls narrow more decisively into the 5-10ppt range, that would likely see GBP pare back some of its recent gains. We do expect another YouGov MRP poll before election day to further guide expectations.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD retreats after strong NFP, weak German data

EUR/USD is trading below   1.11 after US Non-Farm Payrolls beat expectations with 266K and mixed wage growth. Earlier, weak German data weighed on the euro. Updates on trade are awaited.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD shrugs off strong NFP, focuses on UK elections

GBP/USD is trading below 1.3150 but off the post-NFP lows. The US gained more jobs than expected. The Conservatives remain in the lead ahead of the debate between PM Johnson and Labour leader Corbyn.

GBP/USD News

US recession? Not so fast, a calm look at the economy and currencies ahead of the NFP

Recent US economic indicators have been downbeat, but they include silver linings and are backed by robust consumption. Valeria Bednarik, Joseph Trevisani, and Yohay Elam...

Read more

Gold drops to fresh multi-day lows on upbeat NFP report

Gold faded an intraday bullish spike to the $1480 area and tumbled to fresh multi-day lows, around the $1465 region in reaction to upbeat US monthly jobs report.

Gold News

USD/JPY: bearish ahead of US employment figures

Japanese data missed the market’s expectations, triggering fresh concerns about the economy. Focus on US employment figures, market players anticipate dismal numbers. USD/JPY is technically bearish could break below the 108.00 level.

USD/JPY News

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures