According to Jacqui Douglas, chief European macro strategist at TD Securities, with 9 days to go for the UK elections, the betting odds point to steady expectations for a Conservative majority, in line with results from last week's YouGov MRP model.
Key Quotes
“The Conservative-Labour vote spread has narrowed slightly. It's now teetering around 10%, the rough dividing line between a safe or narrow Conservative win, where it could be more difficult to pass contentious legislation.”
“There are two election risks in view:
- US President Trump visit: Trump is in London for NATO meetings. While he has pledged to stay out of the election, moments later he said Johnson is very capable and will do well and waded into the NHS trade deal debate. Any "helpful" comments from Trump may not actually be very helpful for Johnson.
- Friday's Johnson-Corbyn debate: Johnson needs to prevent Corbyn from landing any fatal blows during their head-to-head debate.”
“If polls narrow more decisively into the 5-10ppt range, that would likely see GBP pare back some of its recent gains. We do expect another YouGov MRP poll before election day to further guide expectations.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
GBP/USD rises above 1.3300 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD trades with a positive bias for the third straight day on Friday and hovers above the 1.3300 mark in the European morning on Friday. The data from the UK showed that Retail Sales rose at a stronger pace than expected in August, supporting Pound Sterling.
USD/JPY keeps BoJ-led losses below 142.50, Ueda's presser eyed
USD/JPY remains in the red below 142.50 after the Bank of Japan announced on Friday that it maintained the short-term rate target in the range of 0.15%-0.25%, as widely expected. Governor Ueda's press conference is next in focus.
Gold consolidates weekly gains, with sight on $2,600 and beyond
Gold price is looking to build on the previous day’s rebound early Friday, consolidating weekly gains amid the overnight weakness in the US Dollar alongside the US Treasury bond yields. Traders now await the speeches from US Federal Reserve monetary policymakers for fresh hints on the central bank’s path forward on interest rates.
Shiba Inu is poised for a rally as price action and on-chain metrics signal bullish momentum
Shiba Inu remains strong on Friday after breaking above a symmetrical triangle pattern on Thursday. This breakout signals bullish momentum, further bolstered by a rise in daily new transactions that suggests a potential rally in the coming days.
Bank of Japan set to keep rates on hold after July’s hike shocked markets
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its short-term interest rate target between 0.15% and 0.25% on Friday, following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review. The decision is set to be announced during the early Asian session.
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.