According to Jacqui Douglas, chief European macro strategist at TD Securities, with 9 days to go for the UK elections, the betting odds point to steady expectations for a Conservative majority, in line with results from last week's YouGov MRP model.
“The Conservative-Labour vote spread has narrowed slightly. It's now teetering around 10%, the rough dividing line between a safe or narrow Conservative win, where it could be more difficult to pass contentious legislation.”
“There are two election risks in view:
- US President Trump visit: Trump is in London for NATO meetings. While he has pledged to stay out of the election, moments later he said Johnson is very capable and will do well and waded into the NHS trade deal debate. Any "helpful" comments from Trump may not actually be very helpful for Johnson.
- Friday's Johnson-Corbyn debate: Johnson needs to prevent Corbyn from landing any fatal blows during their head-to-head debate.”
“If polls narrow more decisively into the 5-10ppt range, that would likely see GBP pare back some of its recent gains. We do expect another YouGov MRP poll before election day to further guide expectations.”
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