Trump popularity and outlook - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explained that slightly over a week has passed since the events in Charlottesville, VA, and public opinion polls have been able to better capture any change in sentiment towards President Trump.

Key Quotes:

"Over the weekend, a few more opinion polls were released. Taken altogether, we believe that the recent polling data highlight a few key points. Despite the significant negative coverage of his comments about the violence in Charlottesville, Republicans broadly agreed with the President’s statements. 

In a poll released on Friday, 64% of Republicans blamed “both equally” for the violence and only 18% of Republicans blamed “far-right groups”. This indicates that the increased media coverage may have little effect on Trump’s standing with Republican voters.

However, Mr. Trump’s approval ratings have steadily trended lower during the first roughly 200 days of his presidency. Using a weighted average of polls from FiveThirtyEight, we can see that his approval stands well-below that of his predecessors. While the events in Charlottesville may not affect his standing within his own party, his popularity has diminished in recent months. 

Finally, opinion polls in three key states point to some softening of his support. Polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, three states that played outsized roles in Mr. Trump’s 2016 election win, show the President’s overall approval rating noticeably under water. Importantly, support among white respondents without a college degree, a key Trump demographic, seems to be waning.