Tesla stock price (Nasdaq: TSLA) earnings beat but still disappoint as credits and Bitcoin help

Update: Tesla reported Q1 earnings after the close on Monday which, despite beating analyst expectations, resulted in TSLA falling in after-hours trading. Investors were disappointed as a large proportion of revenue came from regulatory environmental credits and sales of Bitcoin. Tesla also failed to increase its guidance for the year ahead.

Technically Tesla broke the 9-day moving average support during after-hours trading as short-term technicals turn bearish.

Update: Tesla shares continue to gain as optimism grows ahead of earnings report after the close today on Monday. EPS is expected to be $0.79 and revenue is expected to hit $10.29 billion. A conference call is scheduled after the release, the call is at 2130 GMT / 1730 EST. Conference call details available, click here.

Tesla stock price fell over 3% on Thursday as investors grew nervous over President Biden's tax plans. The electric vehicle (EV) sector has recently been championed as one of the bigger beneficiaries of President Biden's climate plans with incentives for going green set to benefit EV makers and speed up consumer behaviour in switching from fossil fuel-powered vehicles.

Tesla is one of the most followed shares among retail, professional and institutional traders. The valuation has caused much concern among investors for some time, but the relentless march higher continued regardless.

Tesla stock price forecast

Assuming we know all about Tesla and its business model, we can overlook the high valuation relative to its peers and focus on the key technical points for short-term trading.

Tesla shares are a high beta stock. This means it is more volatile than the overall Nasdaq or S&P indices. Given Tesla's high valuation, it also tends to suffer greater falls as that is a ready-made excuse to hit the stock when negative sentiment overtakes the broad market. 

Looking firstly at the weekly chart, we can see the strong uptrend in place – seemingly in place since forever with Tesla. We can also see clearly the breakout area from back in November 2020. This will be the first target for bears if they gain control of Tesla's price. Along the way, support will need to be broken from the trend line at $655. 

Zooming down to the daily chart, we can clearly see the breakout range and the long period of the first consolidation phase in Tesla stock. This lasted from late August to mid-November. The longer the consolidation phase, the greater the breakout. Tesla stock produced a parabolic move, nearly doubling in price in a matter of months.

The good news for bulls is that the sell-off experienced in March stopped short of re-entering this range. From the March lows, Tesla has put in a classic uptrend of higher lows, eventually breaking above $715 resistance. 

Now Tesla stock has recaptured the short-term bullish 9-day moving average and has broken out of the second consolidation phase. Tesla is using support from the 21 and 50-day moving averages also. We can see how well TSLA has used the 9-day moving average as support earlier in the parabolic breakout from the first consolidation.

A break of the downtrend resistance at $760 should lead to a test higher and ultimate target of all-time high of $900.40. The MACD has confirmed the bullish engulfing candle on March 30.

The catalyst for the move could be Tesla's upcoming earnings on April 26. Earnings per share are forecast to come in at $0.78 with revenue forecast at $10.24 billion. The Q1 2021 earnings will come out after the close on April 26.

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