- SPY attempts to rally on Monday but fails.
- Tuesday starts on a better note.
- SPY so far has not broken June lows.
Equity markets did attempt a rally on Monday, but the bond market kept yields, high so any move in risk assets was difficult to sustain. The two-year yield did show signs of falling in the early part of Monday's session, and stock markets took the opportunity to recover. However, a weak US 2-year auction caused a turnaround, and yields moved higher. This then dragged equities lower for the afternoon.
SPY news
Tuesday so far sees a recovery in sterling and a fall for the dollar. Equities are stable in Europe, so hopes are in place for a rally. However, liquidity is declining, which will exacerbate any selling should it resume. The VIX index remains above 30, and Monday saw a massive spike higher in MOVE, which describes bond market volatility. There is a need to show some signs of calm for a rally truly to take hold. Bitcoin is at least going to drag crypto stocks higher, and it appears the correlation between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin is breaking down.
SPY forecast
For now, we have not put in place new lows and broken the June levell at $362. Close but no cigar on Monday. That sets up two possibilities. I would be happier to make a new low and then let a relief rally permeate. The macro backdrop is far worse than it was in June, so logic would dictate that markets should be lower. However, the longer we fail to break to new lows, then the stronger the double bottom reversal signal becomes. Already the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into classic oversold territory, although I prefer to use a lower level of 25 to weed out false signals. The RSI is lower than the June lows,however, so we do not have a bullish divergence here.
SPY chart, daily
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.