SP500 trade idea: How to play the long term trend decelerating higher

Introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests top quant trade ideas to take advantage of trending markets.

Market summary

SPY last price was $ 4,056.80. In the short term SP500 has been accelerating higher. In the long term SP500 has been decelerating higher. Over the past 19 days, the SPY price increased 13 days and decreased 6 days. For every up day, there were 0.46 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.9157% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.902% Over the past 19 Days, the price has increased by 6.58% percent. Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been 0.3463% percent. With the long term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a long trade idea with an overnight time horizon.

The trade idea

Buy $ 202,330 USD of SP500, take profit at $ 4,076.8678 level with 49.96% odds for a $ 1,000 USD gain, stop out at $ 4,036.7496 with 50.0% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss through O/N time horizon.

Intraday Predictions

SPY trend analysis

SPY last price was $ 4,056.80. The long term trend decelerating higher is stronger than the short term trend accelerating higher. This trade goes long when the price was moving higher but decelerating over the past 19 days.

SPY value analysis

Over the past 19 days, the SPY price increased 13 days and decreased 6 days. For every up day, there were 0.46 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.9157% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.902% Over the past 19 Days, the price has increased by 6.58% percent. Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been 0.3463% percent.

SPY worst/best case scenario analysis

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for SPY, is $ 3,998.1886, and the best case scenario overnight is $ 4,115.4114. levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 4,036.7496 could trade and that $ 4,076.8678 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Key Takeaways:

• Price today $ 4,056.80

• Over the past 19 days, the SPY price increased 13 days and decreased 6 Days.

• For every up day, there were 0.46 down days.

• The average return on days where the price increased is 0.9157%.

• The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.902%.

• Over the past 19 Days, the price has increased by 6.58% percent.

• Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been 0.3463% percent.

• Over the past 19 days, The price has on average been decelerating: $ -0.9472 per day higher.

• Over the last session, the price increased by $ 20.25.

• Over the last session, the price increased by 0.4992 %.

• Over the last session, the price accelerated by $ 15.00.