Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD climbs above $24.00 as weak PMI sends US yields south

Silver price (XAG/USD) rallies above $24.00 as the US Dollar comes under pressure after S&P Global reported a weak preliminary PMI for August. Preliminary Manufacturing PMI for August at 47.0 underperforms expectations of 49.3 and July’s reading of 49.0. Also, Services PMI remained lower at 51.0 vs. estimates of 52.2 and the former release of 52.3.

Weak PMI figures demonstrate the consequences of tight monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed). US central bank has raised interest rates aggressively to 5.25-5.50% in a war against stubborn inflation. Price pressures have come significantly lower to 3% but investors hope that inflation in excess of the desired rate will be extremely persistent.

The US Dollar Index drops vertically to near 103.50 after printing a fresh 10-week high of 104.00 as vulnerable economic activities could force the Fed to keep interest rates steady. Also, 10-year US Treasury Yields dropped sharply to near 4.23%.

Going forward, investors will keenly focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which will start on Thursday. Jerome Powell is likely to convey how long interest rates will remain steady at elevated levels. Apart from that, the outlook on the economy and inflation will be keenly watched.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price climbs above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (plotted from July 20 high at $25.27 to August 15 low at $22.23) at $24.00 on a two-hour scale. Upward-sloping 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $23.00 indicates that the short-term trend is extremely bullish.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) settles into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates more upside ahead.

Silver two-hour chart