RBA: Board expects further increases in interest rates

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Following are the key headlines from the February Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy statement, via Reuters, as presented by Governor Phillip Lowe.

Inflation is expected to decline this year due to both global factors and slower growth in domestic demand.

Board expects further increases in interest rates.

Board resolute in its determination to return inflation to target.

The central forecast is for cpi inflation to decline to 4¾ per cent this year and to around 3 per cent by mid-2025.

GDP growth expected to slow to around 1½ per cent over 2023 and 2024.

Path to achieving a soft landing remains a narrow one.

The labour market remains very tight.

Central forecast is for the unemployment rate to increase to 3¾ per cent by the end of this year and 4½ per cent by mid-2025.

Wages growth is continuing to pick up from the low rates of recent years and a further pick-up is expected due to the tight labour market and higher inflation.

Some households have substantial savings buffers, but others are experiencing a painful squeeze on budgets.

Household balance sheets are also being affected by the decline in housing prices.

Uncertainties mean that there are a range of potential scenarios for the australian economy.

About RBA rate decision

RBA Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the AUD. Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

GBP/USD appears well offered near 1.3160

GBP/USD builds on Tuesday’s losses, although it now manages to pick up some pace and bounce off earlier multi-month troughs near 1.3140. The Greenback’s solid performance and continued political turmoil in the UK are keeping Cable under persistent pressure, with little sign of a meaningful recovery.

EUR/USD rebounds from lows, back to 1.1360

After bottoming out near 1.1320, EUR/USD gathers some traction and reclaims the 1.1350-1.1360 band as the NA session draws to a close on Wednesday. The pair’s drop to multi-month lows comes in response to the continuous leg higher in the US Dollar, which remains propped up by hawkish Fed expectations and uncertainty over the outcome of US-Iran peace negotiations.

Gold pressured near fresh 2026 lows

Gold accelerates its decline and gyrates around the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday, its lowest level since November 2025. In the meantime, tighter-for-longer Fed expectations and a broadly firmer US Dollar continue to weigh on the yellow metal, while uncertainty surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement has done little to revive demand for the safe haven space.

XRP nears key support as Fed hike risks suppress demand

Ripple (XRP) continues to face significant selling pressure, trading around $1.05 at the time of writing on Wednesday. This decline mirrors the broader weakness in the crypto market, exacerbated by mounting macroeconomic headwinds and persistent geopolitical uncertainties.

US-Iran talks: The next 60 days will decide where Oil prices go next

Oil markets received some encouraging news after weeks of rising tensions in the Middle East. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves: we’re far from victory, and markets just seem to have priced out the worst-case scenario. The US and Iran have reportedly made "substantive progress" in talks in Switzerland and agreed on a framework for working toward a broader deal within 60 days.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.