Probability of an RBA rate cut in February continues to decline

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

The chances of an RBA rate cut in February got dimmer following the release of a better-than-expected Australian inflation data for December.

The overnight index swap (OIS) market is now pricing just 12% probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting interest rates by 25 basis points next Tuesday, according to data tweeted by RANsquawk.

The markets were pricing about a 20% chance of a rate cut next week before the release of the Australian inflation data.

In fact, the probability of a February rate cut stood at more than 60% a week ago. The odds, however, dropped following last week's upbeat employment report.

Currently, RBA's interest rate stands at 0.75%. The central bank delivered three 25 basis point rate cuts in 2019 and is widely expected to cut rates in May.

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

EUR/USD recovers some early losses driven by rising energy prices amid US-Iran war

The EUR/USD pair claws back some of its early losses during the late Asian trading session on Monday, but is still 0.25% down to near 1.1780. Earlier in the day, the Euro declined sharply against the US Dollar as investors shifted to the safe-haven fleet amid the brutal war between Iran, Israel, and the United States, which broke out over the weekend.

GBP/USD targets 1.3500 barrier near moving averages

GBP/USD rebounds from the daily losses, trading around 1.3450 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing bearish bias, as the pair trades within a descending channel pattern.

Gold looks further north as Iran war boosts haven demand

Gold is taking a breather after the initial run to over one-month highs near $5,400, kicking off the new week with a bang. A global flight to safety theme, following the US-Israel joint attacks on Iran over the weekend, bolstered the demand for the traditional store of value, Gold.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple under pressure as key supports face breakdown risk

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple prices trade on the back foot at the start of this week on Monday, after extending losses in the previous week. BTC is on the brink of a breakdown, ETH is capped below key resistance, and XRP risks a crack of the trendline.

The market is paying for insurance, not apocalypse

As expected, this morning felt less like a Monday market open and more like a fire drill. Futures screens flickered red. S&P contracts down almost 1%. Nasdaq off 1.2%. Brent leaped 13% through $80. Gold rose 1.6% toward $5350 before paring some gains. The dollar is strutting mildly. The Swiss franc is quietly doing what it always does in a storm, catching some safe-haven flows.

Starknet unveils strkBTC, shielded Bitcoin transactions on Ethereum Layer 2

Starknet, the Ethereum Layer 2 network developed by StarkWare, today announced strkBTC, a wrapped Bitcoin asset that introduces optional shielding while preserving full DeFi composability.