Palladium Price Analysis: XPD/USD awaits US NFP to regain bullish impulse to $2,800

Palladium (XPD/USD) attacks the upper-end of the recent range between $2,768 and $2,756, marking no major intraday moves, ahead of Friday’s European session. The precious metal jumped to a fresh high since June 17 the previous day before marking losses from $2,801.

Although palladium bulls lick the previous day’s wounds near $2,767, refraining from further downside, subdued markets probe the price moves ahead of the key US employment data for June. Also challenging the commodity’s momentum could be the lack of major data/events. It’s worth noting that the bullion buyers seem to worry about the US dollar’s further upside, amid the safe-haven play, by portraying the latest indecision.

That said, the US dollar index (DXY) edges higher around the three-month top, near 92.57 by the press time. Behind the greenback’s safe-haven allure could be the fears of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy adjustment, recently backed by the strong US data and the International Monetary Fund, not to forget hawkish Fedspeak.

Also favoring the USD bulls are the concerns relating to the Delta covid strain as the virus woes trouble Asia-Pacific’s nascent recovery, also challenging the UK’s unlock dreams. It’s worth noting that Asia is the largest consumer of precious metals and hence pessimism surrounding the regional economics can probe the XPD/USD prices.

Amid these plays, stock futures remain lackluster whereas the US Treasury yields grind lower by the press time.

Moving on, the covid updates may offer intermediate moves to the palladium prices before the market players battle the US jobs report for June. Forecasts suggest the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to rise from 559K prior to 690K and the Unemployment Rate to ease from 5.8% to 5.7%. Given the hopes from the key US data, any disappointment will have a fierce reaction from XPD/USD buyers battling the short-term important hurdle, namely the 50-DMA.

Technical analysis

Despite crossing a two-month-old resistance line, now support, palladium prices remain below 50-DMA, suggesting a sideways grind between $2,810 and $2,730.