- The NZD/USD eyes to break below 0.6600 amid tensions on the Russian/Ukraine conflict.
- The market mood is upbeat, as portrayed by risk-sensitive currencies.
- NZD/USD is downward biased, but it could shift to neutral if NZD buyers achieve a daily close above 0.6650.
The NZD/USD extends to four days of losses in the North American session, courtesy of the financial markets’ risk-off environment since Friday. At the time of writing is trading at 0.6605.
Risk appetite is back so far. Updates crossing the wires that some Russian troops are returning to the base provided a lift up on US equity futures, while European bourses are in the green. The Russia/Ukraine narrative shift towards a diplomatic exit boosted risk-sensitive currencies to the detriment of safe-haven peers, namely the USD and the JPY.
In the meantime, around 14:23 GMT, it crossed the wires that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not want war in Europe but reiterated that his proposals had not been answered and the decision about a partial withdrawal of troops has been taken.
US Producer Prices approach the 10% barrier
Before the Wall Street Open, the US Bureau of Labor reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for January rose by 9.7% y/y, unchanged per the December reading but higher than the 9.1% estimated by analysts. On Core PPI metrics, they came at 8.3% y/y, lower than the 8.5% from December but larger than the 7.9% foreseen.
In the Asian Pacific session, New Zealand and China modernized their 2008 free-trade agreement (FTA). The NZ Minister of Trade and Export Growth Damien O’Connor said that “our primary industry exports forecast to hit a record $50 billion this year alone.”
Meanwhile, the NZ economic docket featured Tourist Arrivals for December increased to 4.4%, from 3.8%, in the November reading.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The NZD/USD is downward biased, as depicted by recent price action in the daily chart. The location of the daily moving averages (DMAs) above the spot price confirms the aforementioned. Failure to reclaim the 50-DMA at 0.6742 on February 10 exerted downward pressure on the pair, retreating towards the 0.6500 area before reclaiming the 0.6600 figure, on improved risk market mood.
However, to shift the NZD/USD outlook to a neutral bias, NZD bulls would need to place a daily close above February 14 0.6650 daily high. In that event, the NZD/USD could probe the 0.6700 figure alongside the 50-DMA at 0.6734. Otherwise, the NZD/USD first support would be February 4 daily low at 0.6589, followed by January 28 daily low at 0.6529.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 ahead of key US data
EUR/USD trades in a tight range above 1.0700 in the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar struggles to gather strength ahead of key PCE Price Index data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, and helps the pair hold its ground.
USD/JPY stays above 156.00 after BoJ Governor Ueda's comments
USD/JPY holds above 156.00 after surging above this level with the initial reaction to the Bank of Japan's decision to leave the policy settings unchanged. BoJ Governor said weak Yen was not impacting prices but added that they will watch FX developments closely.
Gold price oscillates in a range as the focus remains glued to the US PCE Price Index
Gold price struggles to attract any meaningful buyers amid the emergence of fresh USD buying. Bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer amid sticky inflation help revive the USD demand.
Sei Price Prediction: SEI is in the zone of interest after a 10% leap
Sei price has been in recovery mode for almost ten days now, following a fall of almost 65% beginning in mid-March. While the SEI bulls continue to show strength, the uptrend could prove premature as massive bearish sentiment hovers above the altcoin’s price.
US core PCE inflation set to signal firm price pressures as markets delay Federal Reserve rate cut bets
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen as the more influential measure of inflation in terms of Fed positioning. The index is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in March, matching February’s increase.