NZD/USD holds recent gains above 21-day EMA ahead of second-tier data

Not only the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Testimony but minutes of the latest FOMC meeting also renewed concerns of the US monetary easing and triggered across the board selling of the US Dollar (USD). As a result, the NZD/USD jumped to regain its stand above 21day EMA while taking rounds to 0.6645 at the start of Thursday’s Asian trading session.

While mixed data from China and doubts surrounding the US-China trade deal dragged the Kiwi pair downwards during early Wednesday, the pair managed to gradually recover the losses afterward.

However, the buyers sneaked after the Fed Chair Powell cited inflation risk and reiterated that the Fed will act 'as appropriate' to sustain the economic expansion. Following that, minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting also fall short of revealing any more details than a strong bearish bias among many officials.

At the trade front, the US and Chinese diplomats are talking the trade with the dragon nation’s initial demand to dump arms sales deal to Vietnam seems like a first barrier on the road to discussion. China’s SCMP also conveyed that the nation didn’t promise any purchases of the US farm products at G20, offering additional negative for the odds of a successful trade deal between the world’s two largest economies.

Moving on, New Zealand’s May month Credit Card Spending and Electronic Card Retail Sales for June will be the immediate catalysts to watch. The Credit Card Spending grew 6.6% during its earlier readouts while Electronic Card Retail Sales grew 3.2% on a yearly basis and declined -0.5% on MoM format. Forecasts suggest +0.7% increase for Electronic Card Retail Sales.

Ahead of the event, TD Securities said:

We anticipate a 0.5% bump in June retail Card Spending, following the 0.7% drop in May. Although most business sentiment surveys have plunged, consumer sentiment remains upbeat. We anticipate upside risk to our forecast.

Following the New Zealand data, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and second part of the Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony will be the key to watch while trade news/headlines will keep offering background music.

Technical Analysis

Unless providing a successful break of early-month low near 0.6656, chances of the pair’s pullback to 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) level of 0.6632 can’t be denied. Also, additional downpour past-0.6632 highlights the importance of 0.6600 and late-May top close to 0.6560 as the key supports.

Alternatively, 100-day EMA level of 0.6680 and 0.6715 comprising 200-day EMA can question the Kiwi pair’s upside.