Natural Gas in the US uninterested in Europe's LNG problems

Natural Gas prices are taking off in Europe after workers in Australia have started their partial strikes on Friday. The volatility is peaking on the European gas market with European gas futures up over 10% at one point in European trading hours. Prices are set to rally further as from Thursday a full walkout could take place if no accord is being formed. 

Meanwhile the US Dollar is tanking in a blood red trading day this Monday. The Greenback is losing big time against the Yuan, Yen and Australian Dollar, each time down near 1%. This makes the DXY slide substantially lower. 

At the time of writing, Natural Gas is trading at $2.80per MMBtu.  

Natural Gas news and market movers

• The Appalachia bassin production for local US natural gas deliveries, is expected to fall near 2.5% in production. All terminals across the US are reporting a decrease in exports as well for LNG this week. 
• A big divergence in gas prices from a geographic point of view has emerged with European gas futures rallying nearly 10% to $93.29. It is a fresh monthly high for the month of September.
• Meanwhile, US gas futures were unfazed by the sudden spike in prices on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. Though traders might see some catch up later this Monday once the US markets opens.
• On Friday, the Baker Hughes Rig Count printed a steady number, residing near an 18-month low. US gas prices might spiral higher as well if the US gas production starts to fall short of demand.
• Several weather projections are pointing to a harsh winter to come for both the US and Europe. 
• Norwegian gas supply outages are yet again extended with the biggest one, the Troll gas field, extended until September 14th. 
• European gas storage is expected to survive the winter and end the season with 44% supply left. Currently, European storage is filled to 93% capacity.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Europe still exposed to Russia

Natural Gas prices in the US are starting to fall in a consolidation pattern where buyers and sellers are being pushed toward each other, ignoring supply risk out of Australia. Several technical elements such as the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), the ascending trendline and the 55-day SMA are moving toward each other. Once both buyers and sellers have reached their consolidation point, a breakout is due. In this case, it could mean Natural Gas prices rally higher with the Australian strikes creating a shortage of supply. 

On the upside, $2.83 needs to be taken out in order for this bounce to gain momentum. Once this rebound materialises, look for the  the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $2.93. In case price starts to break above there and head higher, $3 will be crucial with the high of September at stake. 

On the downside, the trend channel has done a massive job underpinning the price action. The 55-day SMA near $2.72 already provided support ahead of any test on the lower end of the trend channel. In case the 55-day SMA breaks, look for support near $2.66. 

XNG/USD (Daily Chart)