Moderna Stock Price and Forecast: MRNA may fall to $188 or $157

Moderna (MRNA) stock rallied just over 3% on Wednesday in a continuation of recent small gains seen after the tumultuous hammering the stock has suffered this month. Moderna shares are down 27% over the last month despite recovering somewhat this week, up 6% now. Moderna is still snapping back after stretching too far during the pandemic. The pace of earnings growth has slowed despite the company exploding due to the coronavirus pandemic. Vaccine uptake has likely peaked, and revenue growth slowing will see a reevaluation of the underlying share price. This is what is currently happening. 

Moderna (MRNA) stock news

While many are arguing the development of antiviral pills is what is hurting Moderna's share price the most, we actually feel it was the weak earnings report. This highlighted a few things. Number one: Moderna is way too reliant on one stream of revenue, that of a covid vaccine. It does have numerous other candidates in trial stages, but only a few have reached phase-3 trials. It takes years for treatments to go through stage trials. Covid did see this process speed up, but it will be back to multiple-year development timelines from now on. What the earnings highlighted the most was a revenue growth slowdown. Once that showed up, it was inevitable that investors would reassess and rebalance their Moderna holdings. 

Just in case you are not aware, other headwinds exist. These include the development of antiviral treatments for covid by both Pfizer (PFE) and Merck (MRK) to continuing haggles, which may turn legal, between Moderna and the US government over intellectual property rights for the development of Moderna's covid vaccine. 

Moderna (MRNA) stock forecast

The move remains in our view a consolidation of recent losses. A consolidation means a continuation phase is likely, and so a break lower is the most probable outcome. Only breaking the strong resistance from $255 to $265 will change our view. This is the 200-day moving average and the yearly volume-weighted average price (VWAP), so it is a strong resistance to break above. Instead, we are looking for a break lower to $188.41 and then $157, where it will be time to reevalaute the argument.

MRNA 1-day chart