International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva crossed wires, via Reuters, during early Friday morning in Asia while suggesting an accommodative policy stand for the Bank of Japan (BOJ). IMF leader also said, “The IMF is not expected to downgrade its forecast for 2.7% growth in 2023.”
Additional comments
Not expecting to downgrade October forecast for 2.7% global growth in 2023.
Inflation remains stubborn and central banks must continue to press for price stability.
Downside risk of spiking oil prices did not materialize, labor markets remain vibrant.
Expects global economy to 'bottom out' toward end of 2023, early 2024, barring unexpected surprises.
Important for China to 'stay the course' in reversing earlier zero-covid policy.
Biggest risk to 2023 outlook is possible spilllover from Russia's war in Ukraine, social unrest.
IMF's projection for 4.4% growth in china depends on transition away from zero-covid policy.
Any US Recession would be mild, China to become net contributor to global economy by mid-year.
BOJ rightly pursued accommodative policy. The pressure from labor on increases in labor compensation has not led to any dramatic change. In other words, there is no driver for inflation from there.
An adjustment to the central bank's debt yield curve control regime was not driven by an increase in inflation, which remains very close to the bank's 2% target.
FX implications
The news should help put a floor under the USD/JPY prices after the US inflation-led slump. That said, the Yen pair was last seen licking its wounds around 129.35, up 0.11% intraday by the press time.
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