|

Gold price slides to $2,315 level, multi-day low amid notable USD demand ahead of US data

  • Gold price meets with a fresh supply on Tuesday amid the emergence of some USD buying.
  • Receding fears of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions further undermine the metal. 
  • Traders keenly await the FOMC decision and US macro data before placing directional bets.

Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its steady intraday descent through the first half of the European session on Tuesday and drops to a multi-day low, around the $2,315 region in the last hour. The US Dollar (USD) regains positive traction and reverses the previous day's slide back closer to a two-week low touched on Friday amid growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates higher for longer amis sticky inflation. This, along with easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, turn out to be key factors driving flows away from the safe-haven precious metal.

The downside for the Gold price, however, seems cushioned as traders might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting starting this Tuesday. Apart from this, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report should provide cues about the Fed's rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand and determine the near-term trajectory for the non-yielding yellow metal. In the meantime, Tuesday's release of the Chicago PMI and the Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Index might provide some impetus to the XAU/USD.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price continues losing ground amid goodish pickup in USD demand

  • Friday's release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index pointed to still sticky inflation and reaffirmed bets that the Federal Reserve will begin its rate-cutting cycle only in September. 
  • Hawkish Fed expectations act as a tailwind for the US Dollar, which, along with a generally positive risk tone, turn out to be key factors that contribute to capping the upside for the non-yielding Gold price.
  • The global risk sentiment remains well supported on the back of receding fears about any further escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel and the latest optimism over Israel-Hamas peace talks in Cairo.
  • Traders, however, now seem to have moved to the sidelines and refrain from positioning for a firm near-term direction ahead of this week's key central bank event risk and important US economic releases.
  • The Fed is scheduled to announce its policy decision at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday, which will be followed by the release of the closely watched US jobs data, or the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
  • Investors will look for cues about the Fed's future policy decisions and rate-cut path, which, in turn, should influence the USD price dynamics and help in determining the near-term trajectory for the XAU/USD. 
  • In the meantime, Tuesday's US economic docket – featuring the Chicago PMI and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index – might provide some impetus later during the North American session.

Technical Analysis: Gold price now seems vulnerable to slide further, towards testing sub-$2,300 levels

From a technical perspective, the Gold price has been struggling to make it through the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) barrier over the past two days. The said hurdle, currently pegged near the $2,346 region, now coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent pullback from the all-time peak and should act as a key pivotal point. This is followed by 50% Fibo. level, around the $2,352-2,353 area, which if cleared could lift the Gold price to the next relevant hurdle near the $2,371-2,372 region. The momentum could extend further towards the $2,400 round figure en route to the all-time peak, around the $2,431-2,432 area touched earlier this month.

On the flip side, some follow-through selling and acceptance below the 100-hour SMA could make the Gold price vulnerable to retesting last week's swing low, around the $2,292-2,291 zone, with some intermediate support near the $2,320 region. The subsequent downfall has the potential to drag the XAU/USD further towards the next relevant support near the $2,268-2,265 area.

Economic Indicator

Fed Monetary Policy Statement

Following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate decision, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases its statement regarding monetary policy. The statement may influence the volatility of the US Dollar (USD) and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. A hawkish view is considered bullish for USD, whereas a dovish view is considered negative or bearish.

Read more.

Next release: Wed May 01, 2024 18:00

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus: -

Previous: -

Source: Federal Reserve

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

More from Haresh Menghani
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD remains depressed below 1.3400 amid escalating US-Iran tensions

The GBP/USD pair finds some support near 1.3370 after a modest gap-down opening, though it lacks bullish conviction and remains below 1.3400. Nevertheless, spot prices, for now, seem to have stalled the pullback from a nearly four-week high, around the 1.3450 area, touched on Friday amid mixed fundamental cues.


EUR/USD: Flag breakdown supports more downside towards 1.1325

The Euro holds opening losses at around 1.1390 against the US Dollar during the mid-Asian trading session on Monday. The major currency pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar starts the week on a strong note due to an increase in the appeal of safe-haven assets.

Gold eyes $4,000 as Hormuz closure lifts Oil prices, inflation fears

Gold is deep in the red early Monday, having lost the $4,100 level, as tensions in the Middle East reignite, reversing Friday's rebound. Gold sellers retain total control at the start of a new week as the US Dollar rebounds on the latest upsurge in Oil prices and the revival of inflation fears, which double down on hawkish expectations around the US Federal Reserve.

Cardano: Ongoing whale accumulation fails to halt downward  correction

Cardano (ADA) extends its losses, trading below $$0.160 after falling over 14% in the previous week. Despite on-chain data showing continued accumulation by whales, the buying activity has failed to lift prices. Meanwhile, bearish derivatives metrics and a weakening technical outlook indicate further downside for ADA.

Week ahead – US CPI and Warsh testimony to take centre stage, BoC eyed too
It’s been more than a month since Kevin Warsh took over as head of the Federal Reserve but after one FOMC meeting and two public appearances later, investors are still trying to gauge where the new chair sits on the dove-hawk scale.
Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June FOMC meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.