Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to maintain $1,930 support on mixed growth, Fed concerns – Confluence Detector

Gold Price (XAU/USD) seesaws around intraday high as it prints mild gains after falling the most in a week the previous day. Even so, the XAU/USD remains indecisive on a weekly basis as the markets struggle for clear directions amid the pre-Fed blackout and mixed feelings about global growth concerns.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) flags fears of a weak global economic transition amid higher rates and prod the Gold buyers, especially after the surprise rate hikes from the central banks in Australia and Canada. However, easing concerns about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 0.25% rate hike in June contrasts with rising odds of witnessing a July hike to underpin the Gold Price recovery of late. Furthermore, the risk-positive headlines from China and expectations of witnessing easy rates from Beijing also favor the XAU/USD bulls as the dragon nation is one of the world’s key Gold consumers.

Looking ahead, second-tier data and headlines about global growth, as well as central banks, may entertain gold traders ahead of the next week’s all-important Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. It should be observed that XAU/USD traders should also pay attention to Friday’s China inflation data and yields for clear directions.

Also read: Gold Price Forecast: 100 DMA appears a tough nut to crack for XAU/USD sellers

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

Our Technical Confluence Indicator suggests that the Gold Price edges higher past $1,933 key support comprising the lows marked in the last month, as well as in the last week. The same joins the market’s indecision, as well as the US Dollar's weakness, to lure the buyers.

That said, a convergence of the 100-DMA and the previous daily low restricts the immediate downside of the Gold Price near $1,940.

In a case where the XAU/USD drops below $1,933, a Pivot Point One Week S1 can act as an extra downside filter at $1,926.

Alternatively, Fibonacci 38.2% in one-day and 61.8% in one-week together highlight an immediate upside hurdle for the Gold Price near $1,952.

However, the 10-DMA and middle band of the Bollinger on the four-hour play, close to $1,956 appear the key resistance for the XAU/USD bulls to cross for conviction.

Following that, a slew of resistances around $1,960 and $1,970 can prod the Gold buyers before highlighting the $2,000 psychological magnet.

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About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.