Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD surges to six-month high amid soft USD ahead of Fed speeches

Gold price climbs to a six-month high, more than 0.50% on Tuesday, early in the North American session, as the Greenback remains on the defensive, undermined by falling US Treasury bond yields. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD exchanges hands at $2025, after bouncing from daily lows of $2011.79.

XAU/USD reaches $2028.01 as the market anticipates potential Fed rate cuts

The market mood shifted sour as participants await remarks from some US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials during the day. The US economic data revealed home prices, which expanded at a 6.1% YoY pace in September, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). The report showed the cost of mortgage loans has fallen as the Fed kept rates unchanged for the last two meetings. Speculations are mounting that the US central bank is done raising interest rates, triggering a fall in US Treasury bond yields.

In the meantime, money market futures have priced in 85 basis points of rate cuts for the next year. Therefore, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the buck against six currencies, is treading water, drops 0.22%, at 102.97. The US 10-year Treasury bond yield is virtually unchanged at 4.40%.

Ahead in the calendar, the Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is expected to deliver some remarks at around 15:00 GMT. At the same time, the Conference Board is expected to release November’s consumer confidence, awaited at 101, which suggests a slim deterioration compared to October’s 102.6 data, along with Richmond’s Fed Manufacturing Index.

XAU/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

Gold’s daily chart portrays the yellow metal as upward biased, with bulls in charge and eyeing the April 23 swing high at $2048.15, before challenging the all-time high at $2081.82. A decisive breach of those levels will put into play, the $2100 figure. On the other hand, bears must bring prices below October 27, the latest cycle high at $2009.42, before extending its losses to the $2000 mark.