Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD suffers altitude sickness around mid-$1,800s ahead of Fed’s Powell


  • Gold prices snap four-day uptrend while reversing from a fortnight high.
  • Risk-aversion joins firmer US dollar to weigh on metal prices.
  • Anxiety ahead of key data/events keeps traders troubled.

Gold (XAU/USD) prices remain pressured around the intraday low near $1,850 as sellers struggle to re-enter amid a risk-off mood during the pre-European session trading on Tuesday.

The metal’s latest weakness could be linked to the fresh concern about the US-China trade war and economic fears relating to China’s GDP growth. Also weighing the precious metal prices are the recently hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers and the market’s anxiety ahead of a busy economic calendar.

Although US President Joe Biden teased relief for China, as far as the Trump-era tariff is concerned, his defense of Taiwan keeps the Sino-American geopolitical tensions alive. Also, US Trade Representative (USTR) Katherine Tai’s statements,  who poured cold water on the face of expectations that the Sino-American jitters will be eased soon, at least for the trade concerns, were negatives for gold. The US diplomat said, “We're still working on next actions with China,” while turning down the optimism triggered by US President Joe Biden’s comments suggesting a reversal of the Trump-era tariffs on China.

On a different page, Reuters highlights the covid-led lockdowns in China as the key barrier. “Beijing extended its work-from-home requirement to stem a COVID-19 outbreak, while Shanghai deployed more testing and curbs to hold on to its hard-won "zero COVID" status after two months of lockdown,” said the news. Furthermore, pessimistic growth forecasts for China from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs add to the gold price weakness. The reason could be linked to China’s status as one of the world’s top gold consumers.

Elsewhere, recently hawkish comments favoring the tighter monetary policy from San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly and Kansas City Fed President Esther George seem to exert downside pressure on the market sentiment. Furthermore, anxiety ahead of the preliminary readings of the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs for May, as well as a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, also weighs on the risk appetite and the XAU/USD prices.

Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures drops 1.21% whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped 2.4 basis points (bps) to 2.835% at the latest.

Moving on, fears of faster monetary policy could help the US dollar to add some more gains if the PMIs manage to print upbeat numbers. For that to happen, Fed’s Powell should refrain from his routine support for 50 bps rate hikes for the next two meetings.

Read: Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD eyes a sustained move above 21-DMA, focus shifts to Fed Minutes

Technical analysis

Gold fades bounce off the 100-SMA as RSI (14) diverges from the higher-low formation, portraying a bearish RSI divergence.

Even so, a clear downside break of the 100-SMA and weekly support line, respectively around $1,848 and $1,839, becomes necessary for a gold seller’s conviction.

Meanwhile, a confluence of the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of April 18 to May 16 downside, near $1,894, challenged the gold buyers.

Overall, gold buyers have miles to go before retaking the control.

Gold: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further weakness expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price 1851.85
Today Daily Change -1.69
Today Daily Change % -0.09%
Today daily open 1853.54
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1856.64
Daily SMA50 1906.99
Daily SMA100 1884.8
Daily SMA200 1838.47
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1865.47
Previous Daily Low 1843.78
Previous Weekly High 1849.45
Previous Weekly Low 1786.94
Previous Monthly High 1998.43
Previous Monthly Low 1872.24
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1857.18
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1852.07
Daily Pivot Point S1 1843.06
Daily Pivot Point S2 1832.57
Daily Pivot Point S3 1821.37
Daily Pivot Point R1 1864.75
Daily Pivot Point R2 1875.95
Daily Pivot Point R3 1886.44

 

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 ahead of key US data

EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 ahead of key US data

EUR/USD trades in a tight range above 1.0700 in the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar struggles to gather strength ahead of key PCE Price Index data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, and helps the pair hold its ground. 

EUR/USD News

USD/JPY stays above 156.00 after BoJ Governor Ueda's comments

USD/JPY stays above 156.00 after BoJ Governor Ueda's comments

USD/JPY holds above 156.00 after surging above this level with the initial reaction to the Bank of Japan's decision to leave the policy settings unchanged. BoJ Governor said weak Yen was not impacting prices but added that they will watch FX developments closely.

USD/JPY News

Gold price oscillates in a range as the focus remains glued to the US PCE Price Index

Gold price oscillates in a range as the focus remains glued to the US PCE Price Index

Gold price struggles to attract any meaningful buyers amid the emergence of fresh USD buying. Bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer amid sticky inflation help revive the USD demand.

Gold News

Sei Price Prediction: SEI is in the zone of interest after a 10% leap

Sei Price Prediction: SEI is in the zone of interest after a 10% leap

Sei price has been in recovery mode for almost ten days now, following a fall of almost 65% beginning in mid-March. While the SEI bulls continue to show strength, the uptrend could prove premature as massive bearish sentiment hovers above the altcoin’s price.

Read more

US core PCE inflation set to signal firm price pressures as markets delay Federal Reserve rate cut bets

US core PCE inflation set to signal firm price pressures as markets delay Federal Reserve rate cut bets

The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen as the more influential measure of inflation in terms of Fed positioning. The index is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in March, matching February’s increase. 

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures