|

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD struggles near one-week low amid sustained USD buying

  • Gold witnesses selling for the second straight day on Tuesday amid modest USD strength.
  • Hawkish Fed expectations and elevated US bond yields continue to underpin the greenback.
  • Recession fears could limit losses for the safe-haven XAU/USD ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Gold attracts fresh selling near the $1,783 region on Tuesday and turns lower for the second successive day. The XAU/USD drops back closer to a one-week low touched the previous day, around the $1,774 area during the first half of the European session and now seems vulnerable to a further slide.

Following a brief consolidation through the early part of trading on Tuesday, the US dollar gains some positive traction for the third straight day and exerts some pressure on the dollar-denominated gold. Despite last week's softer US CPI report, Fed officials stressed that it is too soon to declare a victory on inflation and have maintained a hawkish tone. This, in turn, suggests that the Fed would stick to its policy tightening path and continues to underpin the greenback.

In fact, the markets are currently pricing in a greater chance of at least a 50 bps rate hike at the next FOMC policy meeting in September. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which turns out to be another factor driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal. The downside, however, seems cushioned, at least for the time being, as investors might now prefer to move on the sidelines ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Investors would look for clues about the possibility of a larger 75 bps rate hike move in September. This could play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and help determine the next leg of a directional move for gold. In the meantime, growing worries about a global economic downturn could lend some support to the safe-haven precious metal. Traders now look forward to the housing market data and Industrial Production figures from the US for some impetus on Tuesday.

Technical levels to watch

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price1775.29
Today Daily Change-4.41
Today Daily Change %-0.25
Today daily open1779.7
 
Trends
Daily SMA201758.01
Daily SMA501781.91
Daily SMA1001835.92
Daily SMA2001841.91
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1802.51
Previous Daily Low1773.01
Previous Weekly High1807.93
Previous Weekly Low1770.9
Previous Monthly High1814.37
Previous Monthly Low1680.91
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1784.28
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1791.24
Daily Pivot Point S11767.64
Daily Pivot Point S21755.57
Daily Pivot Point S31738.14
Daily Pivot Point R11797.14
Daily Pivot Point R21814.57
Daily Pivot Point R31826.64

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

More from Haresh Menghani
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD rises to 0.6950 as USD slips on Fed's Warsh

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the bounce toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. Fed Chair Warsh's comments reinforce the selling pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the pair to stretch higher. Warsh said that he remains committed to delivering price stability without giving away anything on future interest rate path.

USD/JPY falls in symc with USD, gives up 158.00 after Warsh's speech

USD/JPY has come under fresh selling pressure and gives up 158.00 in the Asian session on Friday amid the emergence of fresh US Dollar selling. Fed Chair Warsh's non-committal commentary on the future tightening path, weighs on the US Dollar and the pair.

Gold looks vacillating above $4,150

Gold alternates gains with losses below the key $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The yellow metal’s irresolute price action comes in response to a modest pullback in the US Dollar and a tepid recovery in US Treasury yields across the board.

Bitcoin steadies at $82,000: The five forces crushing the Uptober rally

Crypto markets have remained under pressure so far in October, with Bitcoin (BTC) sliding below $80,000 earlier this week before recovering to around $82,000 on Friday, as macroeconomic headwinds and cooling demand weigh on the market.

The Fed just got a second hot inflation number. Here's what the diesel signal is really saying
The Federal Reserve (Fed) faces a renewed inflation challenge after two consecutive reports showed price pressure intensifying across the US economy. September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) confirmed accelerating consumer inflation, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) revealed an even sharper rise in business costs. Behind both reports lies a common factor: energy prices.
Everyone's dumping Gold after hot US inflation. Here's why $4,100 could be a floor, not a cliff
Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from a sharp sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data released on Wednesday. The precious metal briefly plunged toward $4,073 as investors increased their bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes before recovering as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD) reversed their initial gains.