Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD struggles below $1,860, upside looks likely on lower US NFP forecast

Gold price (XAU/USD) is consolidating below the critical resistance of $1,860.00 after a sheer upside move from the low of $1,786.78, recorded on May 16. The precious metal has turned sideways as investors are awaiting the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which are due on Friday. The US NFP is a major catalyst that guides the preparation of the monetary policy statement, which is dictated by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

As per the market consensus, the US NFP is expected to land at 320k against the prior print of 428k. The labor market in the US economy is extremely tight and continuous additions of jobs are indicating the healthy progress of the economy. On an average basis, the US economy has been adding 551.6k jobs to its labor force over the past year. This time, the forecast of 320k is significantly lower than the average additions, which signals that the employment curve is advancing but at a diminishing rate.

On the dollar front, the US dollar index (DXY) has comfortably established below 102.00. The asset has registered a fresh monthly low at 101.30. This week, ISM Manufacturing PMI data also holds significant importance. The economic catalyst is seen at 54.5 against the prior print of 55.4.

Gold technical analysis

On an hourly scale, the gold price is forming a Symmetrical Triangle that signals a slippage in the volatility followed by a breakout in the same. Considering the price action, an upside break of the above-mentioned chart pattern looks likely. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,856.90 is overlapping with the gold prices, which signals an ongoing consolidation phase. Apart from that, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 range, which signals the continuation of a rangebound move.

Gold hourly chart