Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD sits near weekly top, just above $1,880 amid weaker US Dollar

Gold price trades with a positive bias for the fourth successive day and is currently placed around the $1,880 level, just below the weekly high touched earlier this Thursday. The intraday uptick, however, lacks bullish conviction, warranting some caution before positioning for an extension of the recent bounce from the $1,860 area, or a one-month low touched on Monday.

Renewed US Dollar selling benefits Gold price

The US Dollar retreats sharply from a one-month high amid the uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-hike path. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor driving flows towards the US Dollar-denominated Gold price. In fact, Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a balanced tone on inflation and reiterated on Tuesday that the process of disinflation was underway. The comments fueled speculations that interest rates may not rise much further, which triggers a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields and weighs heavily on the Greenback.

Hawkish comments by Federal Reserve officials act as a headwind

Powell, however, acknowledged that rates might still need to move higher than expected if the economy remained strong. Furthermore, a slew of FOMC members echoed Powell's view that additional rate hikes were likely warranted to fully gain control of inflation. Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that it could require higher rates for longer than some are currently expecting to get inflation down to the target. Separately, New York Fed president John Williams said that the Fed funds rate to a range of 5% to 5.25% still seems very reasonable.

Risk-on impulse contributes to capping safe-haven Gold price

Furthermore, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that explosive job growth is evidence that the central bank has more work to do to tame inflation. The hawkish remarks support prospects for a further policy-tightening by the US central bank and act as a headwind for the non-yielding Gold price. Apart from this, a recovery in the global risk sentiment contributes to capping the safe-haven XAU/USD. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before confirming that the recent pullback from a multi-month top has run its course.

Gold price technical outlook

From a technical perspective, any subsequent move up is likely to confront near the $1,900 round-figure mark. A sustained strength beyond the said handle could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the Gold price to the $1,920 horizontal barrier. The momentum could get extended towards the $1,950 region en route to the multi-month peak, around the $1,960 area touched last week.

On the flip side, the one-month low, around the $1,860 region, now seems to act as immediate strong support. Some follow-through selling has the potential to drag Gold price towards the $1,825 horizontal support, below which bears could aim to test the $1,800 mark. This is followed by the $1,775-$1,770 confluence, comprising technically significant 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages. A convincing break below will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for deeper losses.

Key levels to watch